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Technology Stocks : PMC-Sierra (PMCS) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: KY who wrote (2398)	3/7/1999 10:08:00 PM
From: Trader Dave	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3818

1) Valuation (It is probably not overpriced, but in a rising interest rate environment we could see an awful haircut pretty quickly) 2) Current shareholders: we got rid of fast money investors like nicholas applegate last summer when the company announced an increase in r&d spending, but the shareholder list is full of fast money momentum guys again. (relates to number one) 3) Lumpiness in business, last quarter showed 18% sequential growth in networking business, this q? who knows, but I'd be stunned if it's not a much slower growth rate. will estimates go down? very unlikely, but will they go up as much? unlikely 4) takeover speculation proves invalid. perhaps pmcs' recent run up was takeover speculation. someone correctly observed that a network systems vendor is an unlikely candidate, perhaps txn or mot, but maybe pmcs (my hope) isn't for sale, if so maybe some of the short term traders in for the fantasy of a 50% takeover premium will bail 5) declining growth in the internet and e-commerce. suppose cisco decides that selling over the internet is just a big fad? what if amazon announces they'll never make money and the internet is an awful channel for retailing? internet growth could slow. it could happen.. (just a joke!) my question on pmcs is one of timeframe, i steadfastly maintain we could see a market driven collapse in valuation again this year, perhaps as tech euphoria evaporates. great company, could be a great long term stock, but it's not low risk at nearly 40x 2000 eps.