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To: Mary Cluney who wrote (75731)	3/8/1999 11:13:00 AM
From: Paul Fiondella	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

The problem with this view of the market is that countries such as India, China, Russia, not to mention most of Africa and Latin America are poor. SO long as they stay poor we have a limited market for our technologically sophisticated goods. These economies traditionally substitute labor for capital (the proverbial wheelbarrow and shovel) and have little infrastructure and/or need for technology. If Intel and other companies had half a forward looking outlook they would sponsor more economic research into how to bring these countries into the market for technological goods. It's a shame that the Asian crisis, largely brought about by undirected and speculative capital flows, did not result in a reassessment of the rules of the game. Clearly the productive use of capital (sometimes called direct investment) has to be favored by both regulations and governments for the markets that you cite to actually come into existence. We have everything to gain from a Marshall Plan type approach to the building of a technological infrastructure in various third world economies. Unfortunately there is no leadership, either in government or from companies like Intel. Since very little has been learned from the Asian collapse, I expect we will have the market revisit this lesson. Its only AFTER another 1929 type of collapse that any of these issues will be seriously addressed. It's too bad that when you are at the top of the mountain you can't look forward as many of the planners during the Roosevelt administration did. The was the last time, in my opinion, that our government had the quality of intellectual leadership necessary to lead the world forward out of Uganda like pits.

To: Mary Cluney who wrote (75731)	3/8/1999 12:00:00 PM
From: gnuman	Respond to of 186894

Mary, re: "The question of one billion connected computers, in my mind then, is only a matter of when and not if it will happen." Any thing's possible, I just don't think it can happen by year 2010, which was the original premise of my little study. Again, that's the equivalent of 2/3 of current world households/family units being connected. There's also the issue of what the connection will look like in the future. They may not all be Wintel PCs. In fact the cable industry seems to be fostering some other visions. I do agree with many of your statements made, however.