To: James Cherney who wrote (39253 ) 3/8/1999 12:19:00 PM From: Platter Respond to of 95453
NEW YORK, March 8 (Reuters) - Shares of large and small oil companies rose on Monday after talks over the weekend between Saudi Arabia and Iran lead to speculation that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries may strike a deal to cut output at its March 23 meeting. By 1140 EST, the West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures contract for April delivery was trading $0.40 higher at $13.70 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, off its intraday high of $14.03 a barrel. Oil shares were also strong, with the exploration and production sector, which is most exposed to oil price rises and declines, showing the biggest gains. The Standard & Poor's Oil & Gas Index <.SPOILP>, which tracks the performance of independent oil and natural gas producers with large market capitalizations, was up 4.21 percent on Monday to 47.13. Gains among the bigger integrated stocks were more muted after they posted strong rises last week, with the Standard & Poor's Oil International Index <.SPOILI> up 1.07 percent at 819.72. However, analysts cautioned that those who believe the rise in oil prices and shares of major oil companies may reflect a permanent return to higher values were mistaken. "I learned long ago not to allow stock price moves to dictate my investment conclusions," said Deutsche Bank Securities analyst Michael Young. Exxon Corp. <XON.N> shares rose 1 to 70-11/16, Mobil Corp. <MOB.N> was up 1-1/8 to 88-3/4, Chevron Corp. <CHV.N> gained 1/2 to 81-13/16, and Texaco Inc. <TX.N> added 3/16 to 50-7/8, all in composite New York Stock Exchange trading. Since plunging to the lowest levels in 12 years in 1998, oil prices have remained mired in a weak trading range in the first quarter of 1999. The prospect that Saudi Arabia and Iran could approve a new base level for measuring Iranian output has led some comentators to believe that OPEC could succeed in adding to its current 2.6 million barrels per day of output cuts when it meets in late March. However, those hopes were given a sharp blow almost as soon as they were out of analysts' mouths after Venezuelan Oil Minister Ali Rodriguez told union members at the state oil company that Venezuela would not accept any more cuts in oil output at OPEC's March 23 meeting. Venezuela was OPEC's third-largest producer in February. "There had been a lot of short covering going into OPEC, both on the commodity and in the stocks, and I can understand the traders' reluctance to be short going in to March 23, but it is a classic dead cat bounce," said Young. Young said the supply and demand fundamentals of oil have not changed, adding that talk of a sharp rise in U.S. gasoline prices is massively overdone as inventories are still way above normal levels.