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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Spartex who wrote (25906)	3/8/1999 5:42:00 PM
From: stan roberts	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 42771

Is NOVL overvalued? Is it reasonable to expect NOVL's earnings growth rate to approach its p/e? Several analysts project a 3-5yr earns. growth rate at half its p/e.

To: Spartex who wrote (25906)	3/8/1999 10:36:00 PM
From: DJBEINO	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42771

How Microsoft Lost the Cold War. How Novell Won. And Why You Should Care Jesse Berst, Editorial Director ZDNet AnchorDesk Microsoft waged a Cold War for the past six years, using propaganda and promises to fend off a competitor. It looks like it's going to lose. The war of words is over directories, often described as the "white pages" of the Internet. Theoretically, a directory lets you find anything attached to the network -- users, servers, printers, disks. More importantly, a true directory lets you manage all those resources. Manage thousands of users from a single, centralized console. Even when they share PCs. Even when they roam from PC to PC. Why is Novell winning? Because its Novell Directory Services (NDS) can accomplish the things mentioned above right now. Microsoft's current directory cannot. Microsoft propagandizes a new Active Directory, asking customers to wait until it shows up. It's now years overdue. Meanwhile, customers need a robust directory for centralized management, for new directory-enabled applications, for scalable ecommerce. As a result, companies such as Lucent, Nortel, Tivoli and PeopleSoft are partnering with Novell instead. Even Cisco signed on as an NDS partner. Yes, the same Cisco that is working with Microsoft to build a competing directory. How's that for a vote of no-confidence? RETURN TO THE PAST Ironically, Novell finds itself on the verge of victory because it returned to the past. The company gained prominence by "surfing on Microsoft's success." It offered an important service unavailable from Microsoft. Originally, that was file and print sharing over a network, sold under the Netware brand name. When Microsoft countered with file and print services of its own, Novell foolishly tried to turn its special-purpose product into a general-purpose operating system. And got its butt kicked by Windows NT, which is vastly more capable. Then the company decided to make Netware the best, fastest place to run Java. Well, fine, except a) it didn't achieve the goal and b) Java still isn't the dominant way to deliver applications, so who cares. Finally, though, the company has returned to its roots. It has found an important service -- in this case, directories -- that Redmond is not able to deliver. Wisely, it uncoupled NDS from Netware, building NT and Unix versions. Yesterday the company announced an industrial-strength version of NDS for telecomms and Internet Service Providers. I believe the world is poised to standardize on NDS. Once that happens, there will be little reason to convert to Microsoft's Active Directory when (if) it appears. Here's what it means: If you're an investor, New York money manager Paul Shupf claims the company's share price could hit $80 in five years. If you're an IT professional, NDS can make your life easier. Right now. If you're a user, a single directory standard will make many of our Internet dreams come true by allowing seamless interaction between systems anywhere in the world. Microsoft may have lost its propaganda war. But consumers could still end up winners. Your take? The TalkBack button awaits, or jump to my Berst Alerts forum. And please take today's Quick Poll. zdnet.com