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Gold/Mining/Energy : WillP Speaks on Winspear -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tomato who wrote (98)	3/9/1999 1:45:00 AM
From: Tomato	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 177

Top Reply Author: WillP -- Date:1999-03-08 17:41:00 Subject: Funny Thing - Clifford A. Brown As I was putting the finishing touches to a spreadsheet outlining the EPS values for a range of production rates...and ore values...I noted the SI comment of Mr. Brown. Well...far from a Class II Poster's Licence...I am of course one of those unlicenced operators in the world of SI. I wouldn't even dream of attempting a table on Stockwatch. Ohhh...no. I struggle enough laying out two columns of data here. If anyone actually wants to see it...drop me a line. I can attach things to email, after all. Some interesting points: Earnings per share at 1000 TPD get interesting at about $180 US per tonne...reaching about $0.25. Adding $80 to the value adds another quarter. At $420 US per tonne, EPS reaches a buck. Them's Canadian bucks. At 2000 TPD...EPS reaches a quarter at $115 US per tonne, and climbs a quarter for each $40 US increase in value per tonne. At 3000 TPD...EPS is just over a quarter at $100 US per tonne, and climbs roughly a penny for each buck the value climbs. At $260 US per tonne...EPS is around $1.75 per share. I've calculated values right up to 10,000 TPD, simply for the hell of it. At 10,000 TPD, and an ore value of $420 US per tonne...EPS would be around $11 per share. Just for the pure hell of it. And for the dreamers. :-) I've used a sliding capital cost...assumed a 2.5 year payback and 9% interest rate, I guess. The cost of production was as stated earlier...based on the sliding cost for increased production rates. Tax rate, etc was...oh...47%. I also lopped off 25% of the pre-tax income for marketing and other costs, etc. That's probably harsher than others would do. But that's me. Shares outstanding was 45 million. Fully diluted that's already a bit low...and could grow substantially. But hey. You know all that. :-) I'm not a big fan of these calculations...and I don't mind using rough approximations as a result. It's in the ballpark. I hand checked a value or three, and the spreadsheet seems to work...but I haven't exhaustively checked it. But hey...it's a first guess. :-) In fact..it could be all wrong. Probably is. Well..compared to reality, it definitely is. Then again...I'm just reminding everyone to check everything for themselves. Consider this paragraph a disclaimer. :-) Regards, WillP willp_666@yahoo.com Top Reply Author: WillP -- Date:1999-03-08 21:34:42 Subject: DiamondWillie: Hope you enjoyed the EPS data. Another point about the EPS data, although the spreadsheet shows it a bit clearer... There are two means of increasing EPS...one is by increasing the ore value, the other is by increasing tonnage mined per day. The increase from the latter is larger than you might suspect. For example: To earn $0.44 per share you need $420 US rock at 500 TPD. This drops to $230 rock at 1000 TPD, and $145 at 2000 TPD. By 3000 TPD the figure is down to $116 US per tonne. To earn $1.00 per share, you need $420 per tonne at 1000 tonnes per day. This drops to $235 by 2000 TPD, and to $175 US per tonne at 3000 TPD. Maybe this will put some of the potential implications of the latest news release in a better light. The larger the tonnes per day...the less pressure there is for a super high value per tonne. Well...it's party time here. :-) Regards, WillP