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To: Dwight E. Karlsen who wrote (39324)	3/8/1999 11:55:00 PM
From: Think4Yourself	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

If holding is greedy then I'm going to be super greedy. This rally is just getting started. Most stocks are not even to where they were during the last rally, and there are many more facts supporting this rally (Venezuala, shut ins, Korea, India, Japan, declining stocks, all the high level OPEC meetings, etc, etc, etc).

To: Dwight E. Karlsen who wrote (39324)	3/9/1999 9:45:00 AM
From: JungleInvestor	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

Call me greedy also because I'm holding long. To say that OPEC does not have a very good track record is the understatement of the year. My view is that the main reason for the rise in price is that analysts are beginning to realize that supply and demand are getting back into balance. Of course there is some impact on prices for expectations that OPEC may do something based on all of the meetings going on. The oil inventory numbers the last two weeks were drastically different than analyst expectations. Crude oil inventories are about the same level as a year ago. The biggest remaining "glut" is in distillates. My guess is that with the late La Nina storm hitting the midwest and northeast (coupled with refiners switching from distillate to gasoline production and a number of refineries taken off line recently due to low profit margins), this week's (tonight) and next week's inventory reports may show a nice drawdown in distillates. If this occurs, more analysts will jump on board Sarge's "OSS train". This morning on Bloomberg, Tucker Anthony's chief economist (Kathleen Camilli) said that the problems in Asia caused the glut but that supply and demand are getting back into balance. She expects oil prices to rise to its historic price range of $16 to $17 per bbl. IMO if OPEC does agree (along with major non-OPEC oil producing countries) to significant cuts, the price of oil (and our OSS stocks) will take off and rise way above the $16/$17 historical price because even without the cuts supply/demand are coming back into balance (and the full impact of the huge capex cuts has not hit yet). Today looks like a down day (oil down about 24 cents about an hour ago). Tomorrow could very well be another good day however due to a big meeting in Saudi Arabia and hopefully a good API report. One other unknown factor being stirred around in this pot is China. Gold is up over $2 on fears that China will devalue the Yuan. I've read that this would be deflationary for commodities (I don't understand why this is so). Of course gold is also a commodity - perhaps it's up because of demand from the Chinese people as a hedge against a devaluation. IMO my OSS stock holdings are currently very undervalued (especially my largest holding - VTS). If there is a further significant run up in price before the 23rd OPEC meeting, then I'll probably sell a portion of these holdings because of the risk that OPEC may again disappoint (buy on the rumor, sell on the news). I'd continue to stay at least 50% invested, however, since an agreement could really propel these stocks upward.

To: Dwight E. Karlsen who wrote (39324)	3/9/1999 9:51:00 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 95453

I can't win !? can't buy the bottoms & can't sell the tops ?!? <VBG> ! ...but, my job is not to placate the masses - it is to make money - period. << Ummm. Slider, did the OSX hit 68 or 75 today while I wasn't looking? I coulda swore just a couple of days ago you said that if OPEC cuts, then we're off to 68 or 70. Something like that.>> Let me elucidate -(sarge gave me that word): ...by ''the cuts being fully priced in here'' ; I do not mean we are not going higher. If OPEC cuts we most assuredly will go to OSX 68-75. That is not what I am saying and you are missing a very, very, important point - actually the entire point - the point that will take all the money you just made on ''paper'' if you ''don't get it'' ! ...and don't miss the point of ''paper'' profits versus real cash in the till... it ain't profit untill you SELL ! The Street has run this sector up on ''ONLY" the expectation of OPEC announcing additional, new cuts. The Street does not yet believe the very positive ''early'' indicators that will remain unchanged and very positive - regardless if OPEC does, or does not cut and the Street sells us off. I will rebuy that bottom as well and I am prepared to profit in either direction. Again - I don't want the last part of the move - I want the first 50-75%...in early beating the crowd to the party & the first to leave... Today's and tomorrow's prices are fully factoring in OPEC cuts - they are not here because of the undervalued nature of the 'patch; they are here because of the run up that expectations of OPEC are generating. They will leave faster than they came - if OPEC disappoints. Virtually the entire run up to the meeting has that factored in. If OPEC does not cut - we will get sold off and shorted unlike ANY prior cycle - bank on it. If OPEC doesn't cut - the Street will vanish from the Oilpatch. - but , that is actually good news both for traders and longterm investors. As we will possibly get a lower low to re-buy; and finally the next move will be a permanent one - based upon declining supply and slow, steadilly increasing fundamentals - NOT, a 50/50 gamble of a meetings results... but ''real'' fundamentals. Betting here is just that - BETTING, a gamble on OPEC. NOT taking ''some'' profits is playing into the hands of the Street - this is not the battle that the individual investor can win. You are now playing by THEIR rules - if you play this OPEC game. It is a pure gamble. I will not gamble - I will ''hedge'' my bets. I will take profits on this entire run up and will also, be prepared to go to 100% cash and will actually short the move down if OPEC does not cut. I love the underlying fundamentals here - the Street still isn't sold; I am. I love the Oilpatch; but I compete against the Street. They want my money and I want theirs. I can NOT play by their rules and win. I must take advantage of their weakness - that being things like the tax loss selling by the funds at year end and the quick trading opp by taking profits in Jan. That means buying the end of month and end of quarter - ''Window Dressing Selloffs'' by the funds and buying headlong into any major selloffs as they can not have deadmoney and must trim losses even in good stocks - ala~ RIG because they must compete against both the Market average and fellow Funds & Managers. That also means TAKING PROFITS right here - right NOW ! - imho. I can afford end of the month/quarter underperformance, I can sit in deadmoney, I don't have to take tax loss selling , I don't have to do any window dressing, I don't have to cover any shorts on good news - as I saw the good news before they did and I don't compete against anyone but myself ! Be smart - play by our rules - not theirs. This is ''fast'' money - this is short covering money - this is NOT - ''True Believer'' money; sell into the Streets greed - buy their fear... They are greedy right here - they really do not believe.... use it to your advantage. ..PS Lehman Bros. just said ''the prices here fully factor in OPEC cuts'' ... decide for yourself. I am not betting on OPEC - I allready have my profit and it is CASH in the till.... good luck. ...Dawg - tell them - they don't see the 85mph fastball waist high and right down the middle of the plate here. I do - I just put it in the upper deck and I am circling the bases.... Batter Up !