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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Michael Bakunin who wrote (75854)	3/9/1999 9:25:00 AM
From: Mary Cluney	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

mb, >>> Give 'em (charitably) five years of 15% growth. Tack on infinite, moderate growth of 5% (still twice stable GDP growth). Discount @ 10% -- FV = $80.<<< Have you factored in Xeon growth, AMD melt down, .18 micron technology ramp, and Merced introduction. You seem to start with a conclusion and then make up some wild assumptions (eg 15% growth and Rambus DOA) to support your conclusion. (you start by giving Intel ~45% earnings growth and then you charitably use 15% growth in your model). But what is your real objective anyway. You've stated elsewhere that your portfolio consists of 2% in puts on Intel and some other PC cos. So what do you really have? Some way out of the money puts in Intel - a few hundred dollars worth? And you are here to advise people how to invest money? How much have you made in your Intel investments? What is your best case scenario for your current Intel investments. Another words, are you putting your money where your mouth is? If you are not, then what is your agenda? Sincerely, Mary

To: Michael Bakunin who wrote (75854)	3/9/1999 1:28:00 PM
From: Amy J	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 186894

Re: "formula: payout of 50%. '99 estimate of $5 EPS. five years of 15% growth. Tack on infinite, moderate growth of 5%. Discount @ 10% -- FV = $80." Michael, It would be interesting to see FV for: - payout @50% (same) - EPS $5.10 (different) - growth: 40%, 25%, 35%, 30%, 25% (different) - infinite growth of 10% (different) 25% for 7 years supports $120. What does 30% or 35% yield? Re: your puts - good return. That's hard to do with a continually inclining stock, but possible during the customary dips. My strategy has been the reverse direction (less risk): hold, but buy x on dip1, buy 2x to 4x on dip2, buy 2x to 4x on dip3. At 112 3/4 I recently bought 5x c/s on dip2, with leaps at 119 1/2 and 109 3/4. Maybe on dip3 I could buy Intel at $100 or less ;) Amy J