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Biotech / Medical : XOMA. Bull or Bear? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cacaito who wrote (9039)	3/9/1999 6:28:00 PM
From: Chris Boylan	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 17367

from Cacaito on Mar 9 1999 5:04PM EST Good post. > "the DSMB is a creation of XOMA designed to oversee" > no, it is appointed by the FDA. This is interesting. I thought this was submitted for approval along with the phase III design. > Even if your suspiciousness is right and one have low mortality > across the range of patients it only speaks good of bpi. Of course, > one will need more recruits. As long as the DSMB allows the trial > to continue they are seeing good hope, remember they > are also bias for good results, they are clinicians and > they also want a product that works. That's my point but doesn't it seem like the less likely of the two possibilities? As you point out in your recap of the patient enrollment protocol, this study is suppose to include just sick children and not the ones that are "too healthy". If one assumes that the enrollment is succeeding as per plan and given that enrollment is 80% more than what XOMA said would be the trial size (260) as of this time last year doesn't it seem like the most logical explanation is that the mortality efficacy is bumping along between the target p value and chance? I actually found the latest press release somewhat hopeful in that they said: "With the United Kingdom providing the majority of our patients, total enrollment has been higher than anticipated, but the overall mortality rate in the trial has been lower than originally projected," said Jack Castello... If you accept this at face value and interpret it literally it supports the enrolling too many healthy people argument and I think that's the best we can hope for at the moment.