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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (51007)	3/9/1999 6:22:00 PM
From: yard_man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

Thanks for me and the others who keep bringing this up. Probably more important than even those numbers is the fact that the trend is clearly established and is not apt to be reversed ... but very few analysts or investors seem to have enough long term memory to construct a trend in sales and profits ... but they will see the trend in PC stock prices pretty soon. <VBG>

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (51007)	3/9/1999 6:40:00 PM
From: Devil's Advocate	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

Finally, you spit it out. Michael, you're logic is interesting and that why I'm here to try to challenge it and see what can come out of it. As you said, your logic is based partly on numbers and partly on guesswork. So, I cannot say you're right for sure but you could very well be. I would not be surprised if ASP went down more the unit sale in 1998. That's why I'll buy put on DELL well before next earnings season to protect my long position. Thanks.

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (51007)	3/9/1999 7:59:00 PM
From: John Dally	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 132070

Here is some back-up to the numbers: 1) IDC: "Total 1998 PC volume was just shy of 90 million units, 12 percent ahead of 1997's 80.3 million units:" (Look under 1/29/99) idc.com 2) Here's something on ASP's from OfficeMax: "However, sales at the company's computer segment fell 26% in the latest fourth quarter to $97.4 million from $130.8 million last year, on a "precipitous" 27% decline in average selling prices for computers." "OfficeMax said last month that its disappointing performance is attributable to changes that have increasingly rendered computers, particularly low-end models aimed at entry-level users, a commodity product." Complete article: OfficeMax Posts Loss in Quarter, Hurt by Restructuring of Unit An INTERACTIVE JOURNAL News Roundup CLEVELAND -- OfficeMax Inc. Tuesday reported a fiscal fourth-quarter loss as the result of hefty charges taken to realign its computer-business segment. The office-products retailer reported a net loss of $6.7 million, or six cents a share, for the quarter ended Jan. 23, including a charge of $49.9 million for the liquidation of computer inventory and impairment of prepaid expenses. Without the items, the company posted a profit of $43.2 million, or 36 cents a share, which was a penny a share better than the mean estimate of analysts surveyed by First Call. In the year-ago quarter, the company earned $40 million, or 32 cents a diluted share. Sales rose 13% to $1.25 billion from $1.11 billion. OfficeMax said core business segment sales for the latest quarter rose 18% to $1.15 billion. Same-store sales, or those at stores open at least a year, edged up 5% for the quarter. Earnings from the core business segment rose 16% to $41.4 million, or 35 cents a share, from $35.8 million, or 29 cents a share, a year ago. The segment handles such items as office supplies, furniture, business machines and printing services. However, sales at the company's computer segment fell 26% in the latest fourth quarter to $97.4 million from $130.8 million last year, on a "precipitous" 27% decline in average selling prices for computers. The segment sells desktop computers, laptops and monitors. The computer business segment posted earnings of $1.8 million, or one cent a share, before a charge, compared with $4.2 million, or three cents a share, a year ago. The company's decision to forgo low-margin, low-profit computer promotions also hurt the computer segment's results. Same-store sales for the computer business segment plunged 43% in the fourth quarter. The company's Internet sales in the latest fourth quarter rose more than 1,100% from a year ago. The company's Web site is receiving more than two million visits per month. OfficeMax said last month that its disappointing performance is attributable to changes that have increasingly rendered computers, particularly low-end models aimed at entry-level users, a commodity product. It said the new plan for its computer business calls for it to move away from low-end products and in favor of pricier models aimed at business, high-end consumers and home-office customers. The company also said last month it intends to begin reporting results of its two business segments separately to better show their operating performance. OfficeMax said it plans to open at least 100 new, full-size superstores in the U.S. this year, as well as up to five new OfficeMax PDQ locations and additional delivery and distribution facilities -- including one devoted to delivery of online orders. The company also plans to remodel nearly 70 stores. OfficeMax also plans to open its first superstores in Sao Paulo, Brazil, and continue to expand in Mexico and Japan with an about 10 stores and two delivery centers.