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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Dally who wrote (51065)	3/9/1999 8:40:00 PM
From: Timothy Liu	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 132070

Your ASP figure from OfficeMax is more of a reflection of retail.

To: John Dally who wrote (51065)	3/9/1999 8:56:00 PM
From: Earlie	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 132070

John: It looks like the wire services had a bit of trouble with the IDC commentary. Three different interpretations appeared before they got it straight. I'm getting a kick out of the slow retreat the 1998 global PC unit figure is experiencing. Initially it was reported as 92-94 million. Later, it faded to 90.0 million. Now it is 89.0 million. In the fall we went to print with a forecast of 85-87 million, so even though there were plenty of jibes, as it turns out, we were very close (and getting closer by the day) (g) With respect to Intel, here are some figures that we think will provide "near-as-damn-it" usefulness. Figure that Intel built about 30.0 million micros and sold 25.0 million of them in Q4. Unfortunately, many of those that reside in the "sold" category got as far as the inside of a PC, but never made it to an end user, so they are really a deterrent to new micro sales. Then too, another percentage of those "sold" micros are still in the spot markets (see earlier posts about Intel availability). Adding this up, we have big inventories at Intel, in PCs (in both the retail and corporate channels) and in the spot market. YUK. Will some of these micros be returned to Intel? I don't know, even though we have tried our darndest to get our hands on this info. In a way, it doesn't really matter, as they act as a block to further sales by Intel, no matter where they end up. Intel will warn, or the Milberg Weiss leaches will enjoy a field day. Retail commentary that we have gathered so far in 1999 indicates a full-blown disaster is underway. Not the kind of hard numbers that some may require, but a serious deterioration from last Winter (which was itself very weak). Best, Earlie