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To: Rajiv who wrote (11046)3/10/1999 3:50:00 PM
From: cazz  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 27722
 
Do you ever trade based on "irrational exuberance" Lets look at stock splits. Generally they have a spike up prior to the split. Is this based on irrational exuberance. You might say that a stock split is rational exuberance, however the value is still the value 100 split up 2 ways is still 100. Maybe you don't trade based on any kind of exuberance but many in the market do.



To: Rajiv who wrote (11046)3/10/1999 4:08:00 PM
From: Sgt. Stockpile  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 27722
 
Do you think NAVR will do what DBCC and MALL did? Meaning will it go to 40ish, or did NAVR already do what DBCC and MALL did when it went from 2 - 15?

Thank you.



To: Rajiv who wrote (11046)3/10/1999 4:18:00 PM
From: katmando  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 27722
 
Pardon my intrusion:

1. You seem like one who likes to crunch numbers which is what I have done every day for a few days with the S-1. That document contains a good deal of info.

2. If you'll review my posts, you'll see my conclusions. Still, I'm uncertain about a lot of things.

3. To summarize:

a. Today, I was very interested in the $70 Mil valuation on VVTV's ownership of NETR. Though, I don't know what it means precisely because the S-1 says NAVR presently owns ALL of NETR's shares today. That's meaningless too because at the IPO NETR will be issuing shares, diluting ownership in a way I can't figure out today.

b. The S-1 says that VVTV owns 882,500 of NAVR's issued shares of 5,922,500 (Actual). That's 15 percent. Janet Moore's article in the Star Tribune says that that 15 percent is worth $70 Mil to VVTV. By extension, NETR is then worth nearly $470 Mil.

c. To me, this says, at the Offering (ie IPO date), NAVR should reap a valuation bounce from NETR (NAVR's piece worth $400 Mil at least). If NAVR is trading at $15, then the IPO is worth at least an addl $25.

d. My modeling says NETR will go to $39 and NAVR will climb to at least $75 because of recent IPOs (HYWY for NETR; MALL and BDCC for NAVR). There's a lot more to those trendlines but that's enough.

e. Calculating the number of NAVR shares (Actual and Pro Forma) is a chore we will not go into here.

4. What's it mean? What everybody already knows.

See ya,

Kat