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Pastimes : Ask Mohan about the Market -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cynic 2005 who wrote (17631)	3/11/1999 2:33:00 PM
From: IceShark	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18056

MoMo, lay off the glue bong on MB's thread. -g- Regards, Ice

To: Cynic 2005 who wrote (17631)	3/11/1999 2:34:00 PM
From: yard_man	Respond to of 18056

When did you get to be a mind-reader? <VBG>

To: Cynic 2005 who wrote (17631)	3/11/1999 2:35:00 PM
From: Cynic 2005	Respond to of 18056

My reasons: 1. At S&P 1306, we are about 31 points - not quite 3% - above previous high. That should complete running all short-stops and new 'moementum' buys. This applies to DOW also. 2. While S&P and DOW keep charging higher, competing assets (bonds and gold) are showing a lot of volatility with an upside bias. So, underneath the rug, a fundamental shift assets is happening. China's publicized comment on reducing reliance on dollar and increasing gold reserves should not be dismissed lightly. 3. Also, there is some evidence that Japanese are taking their money home. The stock players in the US seem to be stuck with playing with each other. Now that the foreigners are leaving the party, the question is where does the new money come from? 401k? May be. but I don't think this tail is enough to wag this well fed dog (thank you, Michael Burke) Credit? Consumers are neck-deep in debt. Banks have already put a lot of leveraged dough in the markets. More credit? Doubt it! 4. We haven't even started pre-warnings season, sentiment appears to turn extremely bullish, even when the fundamentals have been deteriorating at a rapid pace. Don't forget the first goof in a long time by market darling DELL. Well, you may think that it didn;t matter when they announced the results. Well, folks, it takes time for the big ocean liner to reverse course. 5. Just hung-up with a buddy who is a buy and holder. He has been right-on long-term. But each time he made a short-term extremely bullish forecast, the market reversed course and tanked. He is now seeing (rather wants) a top in 6 months at around 10,400. Well, the market has a way not to give what we want. 6. Last but not the least, in one of the above posts, my nemesis couldn't resist the urge to taunt prematurely at DOW 10k. I vaguely recall the hoopla surrounding Nikkei 40k. It never got there. Even if DOW gets to 10k and slightly above, I think it is immaterial at this juncture. The reversal will be fierce and swift. JMO. Just my thoughts. Don't put any serious bets on this call. BTW, the odds of reversal I mentioned in the above note are about 80%.

To: Cynic 2005 who wrote (17631)	3/11/1999 2:36:00 PM
From: kahunabear	Respond to of 18056

See Thread Header. The bird is back, I see. :-) WS

To: Cynic 2005 who wrote (17631)	3/11/1999 2:42:00 PM
From: John Dally	Respond to of 18056

Go, Mo-Mo GO!!!

To: Cynic 2005 who wrote (17631)	3/11/1999 2:49:00 PM
From: MythMan	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 18056

be careful posting this crap. Dow has now steadied itself. 10K back on schedule.

To: Cynic 2005 who wrote (17631)	3/11/1999 4:00:00 PM
From: Investor2	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 18056

Re: "To all, in no more than two more trading days, THIS BULL-MARKET WILL BE FINISHED! Most likely top is today." Wow! It is very refreshing to see a firm projection. I'm getting very sick of seeing statements like, "if the market closes above xxxx today, we'll se a huge rally; if it closes below yyyy, we'll see a retest of the October lows - we'll know which way the markets going in a few days." My compliments on a nice, concrete statement. As far as the essence of your statement, let me say this. Almost a year ago, tekgk calculated that a blowoff of similar magnitude to the 1989 Japanese top would take the DJIA to 10,200. (Are you still out there tekgk?) I thought that was a reasonable comparison then and I see no reason to change my opinion at this time. Best wishes, I2

To: Cynic 2005 who wrote (17631)	3/11/1999 5:05:00 PM
From: Charles Webster	Respond to of 18056

NICE CALL

To: Cynic 2005 who wrote (17631)	3/12/1999 10:53:00 AM
From: Cynic 2005	Respond to of 18056

For the record, after I posted that note yesterday, DOW pulled back to +44 level and then closed up at +124. NASDAQ pulled back to -16 level and closed up +6. So, yesterday's reversal call has materialized only partially. As of the time of this post, DOW retreated to -6 after being UP over 60 in the early going. NASADAQ opened down and going down ever since - currently down about 39. At one time in the morning DOW was down about 18.

To: Cynic 2005 who wrote (17631)	3/16/1999 8:58:00 AM
From: Cynic 2005	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 18056

What's for dinner dinner today? Crow or Thunder Chicken? -g- The call: <<To all, in no more than two more trading days, THIS BULL-MARKET WILL BE FINISHED! Most likely top is today. I expect a serious reversal by end of day from up 132 to about down 100 or more. (NASDAQ is up about 24 now and it should be down 50 or more by close) If that happens, the major top will be TODAY. This will be follwed by a gut-wrenching decline in all indices - especially the market darlings!>> Update: Yesterday DOW S&P and NASDUNG gained 82, 13 and 50 points, respectively. So, thursday was NOT the top as hoped. If we closed-up today, the call is technically dead and I have to eat crow for dinner today! -g-