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Technology Stocks : Compaq -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: rupert1 who wrote (52909)	3/11/1999 8:03:00 PM
From: Steven N	Respond to of 97611

Does anyone read acct. recv. sn please read them and educate your selves sn

To: rupert1 who wrote (52909)	3/11/1999 8:09:00 PM
From: Steven N	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 97611

factoring is an important factor. leasing is in the future.[acct rec. is holding this stock down.] sn

To: rupert1 who wrote (52909)	3/14/1999 3:13:00 PM
From: rudedog	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 97611

victor - I believe that services is about 17% of revenue and I agree that they ought to be easy to predict. I would have assumed the same as you have on real orders, except I was told by one of the finance people that the process is more complex since there is a "rollup" from the geographies which takes about a week, slightly longer in Europe, so they usually don't have a pro forma until a few days after the end of the quarter. So I would guess that they would have a fairly solid idea in the first week of April. There is an additional complicating factor if the rumor that channels are on backorder is true. I first saw this in 1995 when Compaq announced the ProLiant 4500 and demand exceeded supply by about 5 to 1. The various channel partners placed multiple orders and in some cases ordered from each other in an attempt to get as much of the scarce allocation as they could. But when material started coming through, many of those orders were cancelled. CPQ has a fairly sophisticated algorithm which adjusts production estimates based on this factor, but since they are going balls-out at the moment they must assume that even with the adjustments they will not be able to meet demand.