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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Box-By-The-Riviera™ who wrote (39710)	3/12/1999 8:07:00 AM
From: BigBull	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

More OPEC numbers: cnnfn.com

To: Box-By-The-Riviera™ who wrote (39710)	3/12/1999 8:30:00 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Oil prices up - but stock prices down in European trading ... The $64 question remains; how much is priced in right here ??? ...if a formal agreement is announced today I would think we will Rally strongly, but if one is not announced by the last hour of the market; traders will take profits heavilly as they did in Europe. They will not carry profits over the weekend; where any iota of bad news returns us to earth. This does NOT take much imagination to recognize. Sure looks like a positive agreement is coming, but it had better have at least an immediate 1.5 Million boe of additional cuts. If they start off with a series of small cuts and additional cuts are tied to oil prices, or compliance; then that will NOT be good news... But, does it seem ''strange'' to anyone how so much news is being leaked ? Why is the agreement seemingly being announced 10 days prior to the meeting ? This is not quite the mode of past meetings ? Are they merely testing the Streets reactions to what is necessary to trigger certain Oil price levels ? Political posturing without question, but something tells me that these ''Stooges'' may see prices rise and then back of the talked about numbers; and when the meeting occurs the same old arguements crop up. Also; watch for talk to surface from the Street about - ''who cares if they promise another 2 million boe of cuts - if Oil prices are now $2 higher than months ago and they cheated; why wouldn't they cheat here in an enviroment of even higher prices ? -- this is the factor that determines ''how much is priced in here.'' The Street has run up the sector what - 25% based upon expectations of a cut. How much higher on the actual announcement ? --- or, will the next run only occur when the Street sees the actual compliance and cuts statistics - post meeting ? IMHO - we have the run here peaking on the rumor - sell it. Then when we start to see the actual performance of OPEC - post cut announcement; we will have a solid run if OPEC complies. Not raining on anyones parade here; we all have to decide when and if to cash in any, or all chips... I'm in for the long haul; have cashed in most driller & service chips - but transfered/rotated into some integrated Oils and E&P's. PS - looking forward; what do we do for the next week plus - untill the official OPEC meeting; if they agree to cuts today ? How does the market react to announced new cuts between now and the OPEC meeting. Are prices at their peak historically at the zenith of expectations, or at the point of actuality ? Have prices been higher at the moment of peak expectations here in the Oilpatch, or higher upon actual announcements of events; be they earnings,OPEC meetings etc ? Think about how many of our stocks have performed after positive earnings announcements; were the stocks higher -rallying into high expectations, or the day of, or after the actual earnings announcement ? We all know the answer; so does the Street. We can either beat them at their game, or play by their rules once again... good luck; there may be both profit taking opportunities (the best one was yesterday am - another this am ?) and better buying opps on the selloffs - perhaps this afternoon in the last hour ... good luck PS - I am NOT short anything, not a single share.... If we see euphoria; ''post OPEC meeting - and say CAM goes to $36 -$40 - ''AND" if the market turns and sells (takes profits is the correct term) off the ''entire'' sector - yes; I will pick 2-3 high flyers and short the retracement for a quick 6 - 8 10% move; because it is enivitable. - I will then re -buy those who were disproportionately sold off and then hold for the long ride... if the market doesn't sell off the entire sector - then I would not short a single share; it must be a major retracement due to profit taking. Not trying to sway anyone to trade vs. hold; but those who want to trade here - need to have a sounding board as well - we will all hopefully end up at the same point around next Christmas; that being $17 Oil and OSX 100+ ... My point is not to compete with the buy & holders here - that is NOT my point. I am not competing against you guys - I am trying to beat the Street, trying to be ahead of their moves, anticipating from their past track record - which is not to imaginative by the way and is highly predictible. The Street owes me money on both the way up and the way down - you guys just sit pat - no problem with that at all. That is the best bet for most folks - without arguement. PSS - ie: my 300K cut quote - diana et al - you guys need better news sources and had better be able to separate the rumor from the fact here in a hurry imho ! <<March 12, 1999: 5:05 a.m. ET LONDON (CNNfn) - Ministers from the world's leading oil producers have agreed to immediately curtail output by 305,000 barrels a day, a prelude to a much broader reduction pact the group is likely to reach when it reconvenes Friday, according to a published report. >>

To: Box-By-The-Riviera™ who wrote (39710)	3/12/1999 8:57:00 AM
From: JungleInvestor	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 95453

In reality Saudi Arabia "sacrificing" a quarter of the cuts or 500,000 bbl/day is not a sacrifice because they are keeping the bulk of the share they picked up from Iraq (wasn't that more than 2 million bbl/day?). As negotiations were going on over the last several weeks and the 2.3 million bbl/day cut (3% of total production)was mentioned by participants, oil prices rose 30%. (a great big carrot - cut 3% and prices rise 30% or more). Yesterday when traders were "skeptical" about an agreement to cut, oil prices fell significantly (great bit stick). With this built-in natural carrot and stick consequence, I think that there is a very high probability now that OPEC and some non-OPEC producers will agree on a significant cut. This bull rally is like Coca Cola - it's the real thing (poor fellow that said he was going to short yesterday). Interesting commentary on Bloomberg today. Analysts are saying that Japan is now recovering. SONY restructuring is very promising because this sort of thing has not been done in Japan and it will probably lead to more restructurings. As the market anticipates the Japanese recovery, it is also anticipating a much greater demand for oil. A factor in addition to the potential OPEC cuts that is driving up the price of oil, is that money managers are investing in oil and oil stocks as a play on the Japanese recovery.