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Technology Stocks : PSFT - 1999: The "Make-It-or-Break-It" Year? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: David W. Ricker who wrote (233)	3/12/1999 2:04:00 PM
From: bob zagorin	Respond to of 1274

you're right about the short time frame. that's both a problem and an opportunity if one can stand to buy low, then see a stock go lower, but wait it out for 6-12 mos. it's hard to pick the absolute bottom.

To: David W. Ricker who wrote (233)	3/12/1999 3:28:00 PM
From: Michael Burry	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1274

IMO - I think that if everyone is pointing to a single phenomenon (Y2K) and if "everyone" is a heck of a lot of people (PSFT investors, SAP investors, the entire analyst and press contingent following ERP) and if everyone really expects the phenomenon to be short-lived (one event occurring once per millenia like Y2K), then I don't expect market caps to crash 75 - 80% if everyone really truly expects the event to pass in 6 months. I think this fall represents a recognition that there's much more to fix than just waiting for Y2K to pass. And it is this uncertainty/increasing risk/higher required rate of return/whathaveyou that is to blame and to take seriously. Not that Y2K is insignificant, but that it would be wrong of bulls to just write this massive swoon as a Y2K phenomenon. I make my returns in the market investing in down and out contrarian/value plays. Ag equips, oil, Brazil, Asia. So it's not that I don't think the market can be wrong to the tune of 80%, but that when there are other factors to explain the fall, it is important for even bulls to recognize what they are and to investigate them as intelligent investors. Good investing, Mike