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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SargeK who wrote (39802)	3/12/1999 5:26:00 PM
From: Gary Burton	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

Sarge--Thanks for the site--I've been looking for something like that--question-where do they put the drillers like FLC?

To: SargeK who wrote (39802)	3/12/1999 6:29:00 PM
From: Crimson Ghost	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

Negative spin from Bloomberg. But note they say oil rally not expected to continue, not oil STOCK rally not expected to continue. bloomberg.com

To: SargeK who wrote (39802)	3/12/1999 9:41:00 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 95453

Why ''this'' Dog may hunt ... Being cautious, and above all putting some CASH into ones pocket when the opportunity arrises, has proven prudent here in the Oilpatch of late. I took profits in a stair step fashion on this initial upward move. I took a ''Show Me'' attitude towards OPEC. We've all been here and done this before; actually 4 damn times since Sept 1st ! Recently we played the tax loss selling pop in January. I saw the stochastics change and took profits early - caught the first 1/2 of that move - missed the final top and left a decent amount of money on the table - but I got to re- buy everything cheaper weeks later... I will NEVER as long as I live - EVER not take ''some'' profits on ANY 30%+ sector move. One has to use what has proven to be successfull imho - and if it aint broke - don't fix it... This week we saw the euphoria on the ''potential'' OPEC cuts. As news leaked out - we once again had more than a few ''mis-quotes'' and conflicting stories - only to change throughout the week. I again, decided to be prudent and take profits and rotate into the lagging E&P sector and bought the dogs of the patch like HLX & OMNI. However; finally today we had specific information with conformation from specific sources and members. This is the real deal imho - allthough it isn't a ''deal'' untill ratified March 23rd - but the risk vs. reward ratio did a 180 degree spin mid day as this news became confirmed. I was able to buy numerous stocks today - still 50% less than their highs during the Sept - Jan ranges; many 50% less than their very recent Jan - post tax loss selling pop. Quite simply; the stocks that have not had any dramatic fundamental business change/weakness since mid Jan - ( which is 75% of the sector ) have absolutely no reason not to at least reach their January highs and even their Sept to Dec highs. There are 30 - 50% potential moves all over the patch. The strength of stocks at the close was a biggie here imho. When we have 85-90% of stocks finishing in the Green on a Friday with this particular news enviroment; it is a major positive indicator imho. - SargeK, did you notice how GIFI closed ?! ...at the high of the day ! I bought GIFI FGI PDE GMRK in size today - but missed PGO VTS RIG and a few other limit orders. I reviewed the news - watched the tape, reviewed the news... looked at where we were pricewise compared to the January move and the prior Sept to Nov move; and bought ! This news today looks solid; if OPEC were to blow this - they won't need to be worrying about Carlos the Jackal this time - I'll take the nimrods hostage ! ...<VBG>. While I agree that it will be longer than the average investor realizes, untill Dayrates and Rig utilization are back to actual healthy ranges. I have absolutely no doubt in my mind that the Street will run these stocks back to those resistance levels of prior highs from Sept - Nov and certainly at least to the recent January highs. Why wouldn't they into the face of substantially higher Oil prices and new OPEC cuts and a DOW 10,000 enviroment ? This is the main question here is - why wouldn't the Street be a buyer here starting Monday now that we have specific info on the OPEC accord ? Any outcome of chasing DOW 10,000+ helps us, as if the total market rises we get a flow of funds into the market rising all boats. If the DOW gets a retracement off of post 10,000 euphoria - we win as we stand out as THE value play sector etc. Just too many reasons not to move to OSX 72-80ish imho. But, this will also be a prudent profit taking range when we do get there; as without question - the naysayers will return and the compliance issue of what OPEC actually cuts will return us to reality. We will once again get focused on Rig utilization and dayrates and earnings. However I do see a maintenance of OSX 66ish as a new support level from there. From there it will be demand/supply stats and Oil Prices and then Earnings & year-over year performance. As SargeK pointed out - the technicians will be here, the Mo-Mo buyers will be here and if Barrons, and the weekend shows talk up Oil; which they will; next week could be very, very rewarding. Quite simply we have much more positive Investor Sentiment towards Oil Stocks than anytime during the Sept to Jan runs; and we are no where near those highs in most stocks - gotta give 'em some leash here, --- let these Dogs Run !