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Technology Stocks : eBay - Superb Internet Business Model -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kailash who wrote (2212)	3/12/1999 8:59:00 PM
From: Daniel Simon	Respond to of 7772

<< "I believe eBay has the opportunity to become the most successful company on Earth">> Judging by P/E ratio I think it already is... <<You know, estimate earnings each year for the next five or ten years - or however long you believe it's going to need to justify buying it today. Set a reasonable P/E for the final year of your table. >> If ebay can grow earnings at a CAGR of 200% for the next 5 years it will only have a P/E of about 30. Is that so much to ask? I mean this is the internet right?

To: Kailash who wrote (2212)	3/12/1999 10:05:00 PM
From: Doug Fowler	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 7772

Ok, you asked, here it is: First, revenues through 2005: 1999 - $200M 2000 - $700M 2001 - $1.8B 2002 - $4.0B 2003 - $7.5B 2004 - $12.0B 2005 - $19.0B Next, after tax earnings through 2005: 1999 - $25M 2000 - $100M 2001 - $400M 2002 - $1.0B 2003 - $2.2B 2004 - $4.0B 2005 - $8.0B P/E for final year: 50, stock market cap: $400B eBay is going to DESTROY the newspaper classifieds business, and that is where a lot of its future revenue growth is going to come from. And eBay has so MANY directions it can go in: international markets, local markets, job recruiting, product launches, etc. Let me give you one example of how I used eBay: I am a co-founder of a small software development company. Back in November, we wanted to sign up beta testers for our first product, which records Internet and PC activity. I spent $50 and ran a featured auction on eBay, with the hopes of signing up a few decent beta testers. I had to end the auction early because more than 120 people had signed up. And the quality of these beta testers was as good as other beta programs we have performed in years past.