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To: Doug Fowler who wrote (2236)3/13/1999 9:46:00 PM
From: Tom Hua  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 7772
 
Just look at the auction counts. They are VERY indicative of eBay's revenues.

Doug, I'm afraid you're misinterpreting the data once again. What you call auction counts is not number of bids which can be related to projected revenue growth. The numbers you quoted are simply items on the auction blocks. It means there's an increase of supply, it says nothing about demand. Has it occurred to you that an increase in "inventory" can be a result of stagnant sale? You may actually see a decrease or little increase in revenue this quarter.

You project a 60% sequential increase in revenue based on the increase of items on sale is totally misleading. In fact I think revenue will increase no more than 15%. I hope you know by now that I don't make projections randomly and irrationally. I use reliable data.

Regards,

Tom



To: Doug Fowler who wrote (2236)3/14/1999 12:02:00 AM
From: Tom Hua  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 7772
 
Doug, I'm a little confused by your posts. Yesterday you said:

You and I both know this is a game of expectations, and that NOBODY expected eBay to grow by more than 60 percent OVER the Christmas quarter.

And today you came out with a 60% sequential increase prediction. Did you just change your mind overnight? Or are you saying everybody (except you), including all analysts, will be wrong?

Regards,

Tom


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