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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Senior who wrote (6295)	3/14/1999 12:53:00 AM
From: Michael Burry	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78613

Paul, Re: Deere max chart, To me the stock is doubling quite regularly, albeit in a jagged pattern with long pauses. It bounces from 4-10 for four years, then moves to 10-20 for 3 years, then 20-25 for 1 year then 25-30 for 6 mos, now it's 30-60 for 2.5 years and counting. And bouncing now at the low end of its range. You really have to look at a logarithmic chart as in Yahoo to see that it is moving. Appears to me there's plenty of money to be made there. Case, NH, well there's only a few years trading history in those charts, and if DE is to be any lesson, the true mistake in ag stocks has been to look at the last few years' worth of stock performance and believe it will continue. I consider NH, DE to be two of the surest things in the market. Oh yeah, and ELAMF ;) Mike

To: Paul Senior who wrote (6295)	3/14/1999 2:10:00 PM
From: jeffbas	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78613

Paul, are we looking at the same chart? Your reference is what I looked at in saying: "From late 1986 to early 1998 Deere's stock went up roughly 10 times in almost a straight line, with only a two year sideways consolidation." Any patient long term investor would have done exceedingly well on Deere buying at any point during a ten year period. I wish I had owned more stocks like that. A much fairer comment would be that the extraordinary performance of recent years will not be ready to recur after only a one year correction, or that it may never recur. I actually subscribe to the latter view, that it will never recur. However, looking for a double by NH in 5 years (after a 70% drop to about 75% of book value) is only a pale shadow of former DE performance.