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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MrGreenJeans who wrote (3814)	3/14/1999 11:19:00 AM
From: Alan Whirlwind	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

If Y2K proves to be anything more than a mild irritant to the progress of the economy, given the spike up of the last year, look for this market to deflate just as fast at the year's end.

To: MrGreenJeans who wrote (3814)	3/14/1999 12:47:00 PM
From: Lars	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 15132

* Market Stats for last week * 3/12/99 3/05/99 %Change S&P 500 1,294.59 1,275.47 +1.50% Dow Jones 9,876.35 9,736.08 +1.44% NASD Comp 2,381.54 2,337.11 +1.90% Russell 2000 398.38 398.01 +.09% SOX Index 365.65 377.58 -3.16% Value Line 414.15 412.23 +.47% MS Growth 570.16 567.85 +.41% MS Cyclical 483.37 489.44 -1.24% T - Bill 4.47% 4.49% -2 BP Long Bond 5.53% 5.61% -8 BP Gold - Oz-Near Month $293.40 $289.70 +$3.50 Silver - Oz-Near Month $5.31 $5.21 +$.10 Economic News: Productivity for 4th Quarter revised upward to +4.6% January Wholesale Sales fell -1.0% - Inventories -.2% Inventory/Sales Ratio up +.1 to 1.33 months Richmond FRB February Survey - Manufacturing Strengthened February Retail Sales up +.9% - January revised sharply Higher to +1.0% from +.2% - Huge Revision Jobless Claims rose +1,000 to 289,000 - Four Week Moving Average rises +1,250 to 291,000 Producer Price Index for February fell -.4% - Core Rate Excluding volatile Food and Energy sectors - unchanged Business Inventories rise +.1% in January Atlanta FRB Index rises to 12.7 in February from 10.3 *Univ. of Michigan Early March Consumer Sentiment at 104.7 Declines from Final February level of 108.1

To: MrGreenJeans who wrote (3814)	3/14/1999 5:15:00 PM
From: marc ultra	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

MrGreenJeans re"Which way will Mr. Market Go?" Good question. I had gotten down to about 2/3-1/3 when there was a strong smell of significant correction but when the market acted like it was in no hurry to go beyond the small correction I covered my DIA short position and do what I usually do when I have too much cash lying around, I bought some stock adding t some small biotechs. I am now back to 75-25 and I'm content to sit here with a decent amount of cash at these extreme valuations. With Bob continuing to see no bear market in sight and the economic news being benign I don't see any reason to get overly cautious. I guess if we make our run to 10,000 and beyond and the II bullish sentiment reaches 70 again and as a kicker the put/call 10 DMA also returns to extreme bullish territory I would find it difficult not to do some hedging or selling Marc

To: MrGreenJeans who wrote (3814)	3/14/1999 9:04:00 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Respond to of 15132

MGJ: I think the probabilities favor a continuation of a correction or a trading range for the short term (mid April) in the face of earnings pre-announcements. I see nothing on the horizon to take us significantly past record high valuations. The risk is clearly to the downside here IMO. The Fed will not tighten IMO without inflation in the face of a strengthening worldwide economy. Easing is out of the question now. The only position I took the past few weeks is with ASYT with equal positions at $17.5 and $15.375. I think your AMAT purchase and NVLS purchases were sound although I would not have bought the calls as a personal preference. I am hesitant to buy anything further except if we get a decent correction. I crossed some of my boxed positions and uncovered some others to let them run long after cashing in on the short side. I am considering shorting QQQ for a trade.