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To: diana g who wrote (39889)	3/14/1999 12:37:00 PM
From: Gary Burton	Respond to of 95453

Diana--I suspect you are right--THIS time around, there will likely be far less cheating than the skeptics now think because (a) Iran is back onside now that the baseline issue has been put to rest, (b) Ven has a new Gov't in place, (c) they all saw what cheating did to them this past time around and they all will now have more incentive not to cheat and (d) 'everybody' expects them to cheat so there is still minimal expectations in the market.

To: diana g who wrote (39889)	3/14/1999 12:58:00 PM
From: Crimson Ghost	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

Diana: Right on about compliance. The "cartels always fail" mantra has become a relegion and article of faith for some. Even if true in the long run, they can have a lot of short-term success. When a small cut in output can send prices soaring while a small rise can send them plunging the incentives for cooperation are overwhelming. Especially considering the fact that a handful of producers control the bulk of the market. Very different from other commodities where supply is much less concentrated. Undoubtedly cheating will rise over time. But the OSX will be a heck of a lot higher before we have to worry about that.