To: robert b furman who wrote (18608 ) 3/14/1999 8:32:00 PM From: nicewatch Read Replies (1) | Respond to
Hi Bob,
Thanks. The charts are pretty easy to do, and it doesn't take that much time... the hard part for me is to find the time in my schedule to update the charts. I usually get to them at least once a week... sometimes more.
1) For macd (13,34,89) -on the daily- the zero line is usually a good intermediate trend determinant... of course, it can meander around the zero line at times... and whipsaw you... but so goes it. That's why I don't really use it as a standalone. The (13,34,89) I plot uses an exponential MA instead of a simple one, FYI. Besides the zero line, you could look at divergences for signals too, if you so choose. Although it can be very good at times... if you test it -as is- it would only be mediocre at best, imo. Consequently, I use it as more of a trend gauge... meaning that, for the interemediate term (13,34,89, daily chart), I wouldn't want to bet against the reading.... +/-. The only way to justify betting against the reading, imo (i.e. going short while 13,34,89 is still positive) would be if you have a divergence of some kind... but even then I would want to have a set of rules for trading a divergence (that I've tested, and am comfortable with), and or, have other confirming inputs. As an aside, I have recently played a little with macd(13,34,89) on the hourly chart, and liked what -little- I saw.
2) Has the indicator ever reversed at the upper line
It can, and does, everything. Sometimes... it -falsely- moves more rhythmically than others... consequently, I try to look at 3 different STORSI's to get a feel. Also, once you have determined the trend.... you could just take signals with the larger trend (i.e. if the trend is up, buy when storsi < 25%, etc... reverse for sells)... this is a strategy that has worked well for me the past few months. Generally, the shorter term storsi's move fast enough, that I try to zero in on more extreme readings.
At the same time, an extended stay at an extreme storsi (for any time frame) reading can be very telling. For example, in october-november 98, both stori's were at extreme levels for a while..... such strength, coming out of a deep correction was a sign of a new dominant up trend. Remember that storsi is an oscillator, so it takes real force to keep at one extreme for a while. My soybean chart shows a good example of this to the downside in December, and more recently too.
I hate to seem ignorant but do you ever track volume on the contracts to see if this shake might be on low or high volume?
I collect volume and open interest data for contracts.... but the fact is that for me it has little analytical value. V and OI data for futures is reported a day late.... meaning the volume I collected for beans on friday... is actually thursday's volume. I'll give it a cursory glance, but that's about it. That's just me though... I cannot speak for others.
I hope this isn't a bad case of asking too many questions
No. I hope I answered your questions, and wasn't too long winded in the process. <G> Talk to you later, take care
Regards,
Frank
