Good grief:
I confess the 'splitting Winspear in two' is a complete blindside. So, at this
point anything goes.
Let's see what we have:
#1. Rumour on SI by 'red' from unnamed source stating that Aber's share
in the Camsell property would drop to less than 20%.
#2. Denial of same from Aber's office received and reported by myself.
#3. Report by 'james flannigan' on SI apparently from a direct
conversation with Randy Turner that:
a) "(Aber) giving up ownership in Snap at this point is not a fact".
b) "press release tomorrow breaking Winspear into new company to
separate Snap from all other projects".
c) "2000 tonnes has already been processed at the Lytton plant".
OK...what can we make of all this?
Well, first off, we can't assume that any of these are reality. Let's assume
there are varying degrees of truth in all of them.
Well...one option is scary. If indeed the results of the first 2000 tonnes are
available to Winspear's geologists...they are available to Aber's as well,
since they are JV partners.
If Aber indeed chose not to participate financially this year...those results
must be bad indeed...especially since it would amount to reneging on an
earlier commitment. I'd be careful bandying that rumour around too much.
Apparently, for the record, both Aber and Winspear's management have
summarily dismissed this. However, "at this point" could be a key phrase
if it was relayed accurately. More about that later.
So...I'm logically assuming that Aber is still actively onside with this play.
So. Where did the splitting Winspear in two come from? Why? That's a
real stumbling block for me. I never would have expected that. Aber was
rumoured to be doing the same several months ago...but it's been
strangely quiet on that front recently.
Hmmmm...
Here's a totally off the wall bit of personal speculation for you.
What if the original semi merger of Aber and Winspear is partially back
on. That is....
Winspear rolls their 68% interest in Snap Lake into a new entity. Aber
chucks in 15% of it's interest for a proportional number of shares. We
might even assume they were willing to chuck it all in...for a proportional
number of shares...but Winspear management balked at Aber (or
AberEx?) having 32% control of the new company. Aber retains a
15-20% interest in Snap Lake outside this entity.
Is that a possibility? Well...it's similar to what they tried 4 years ago.
So...it's possible. Anything's possible, I suppose.
What are the benefits?
To Winspear? Well, the ownership of Snap Lake entity is suddenly 15%
Aber...probably about 15% current Winspear execs...and 15% Pattison.
(Just guesses as to the proportion.) That would be a fairly good lock on
things...without one group dominating. One assumes that the current
(WSP) board remains intact with an addition or two from Aber and
Pattison. Aber and Winspear have had past differences...but Pattison is
friends with both, and may be a powerful influence here. Who knows.
To Aber? Well...suddenly a portion of their Snap Lake investment has a
market value...that might better be reflected in their share price. It also
provides a similar 'safe haven' as it does for Winspear.
But...who knows.
I do find it strange behavior to say "we're putting out a news release
tomorrow", yet telling someone what it's about in the meantime. I'm still
having difficulty with that one, big time.
Also...simply 'spinning off' a property into a new company makes little
sense. You just end up with two companies...with the same shareholders
in the same proportion and everything. If there's anything to it...there has
to be much more involved.
Another possibility is that the Snap Lake assets are being spun off as a
potential takeover looms. (A few have suggested that.) Possibly Aber
might or might not put in a portion of their share, as above. That would be
the means to raise some cash.
At this point...I'm completely flummoxed. I'll be watching to see just how
this unfolds...bright and early tomorrow morning, for sure.
I suspect I'll not be alone.
P.S....I really don't like being flummoxed. It doesn't exactly instill a
measure of confidence. Hopefully it's all cleared up later tonight or early
tomorrow morning.
At this stage...I'm not at all ready to dismiss it as 'bad' news. I just want
answers...and quick.
Regards,
WillP
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Reply
Author: RealityCheck -- Date:1999-03-14 19:11:04
Subject: SI Double Scoop
WillP:
I suppose WillP being flummoxed could be another scoop.
So, James Flannigan scoops Winspear on a press release and
scoops Kaiser on a sell recommendation. That's quite a feat on a
quiet Sunday--if true, of course. Frankly, it strikes me as being too
strange not to have a good deal of truth in it. It is also very
troubling.
Who Kaiser talks to and what he says is of little concern to me.
However, if Randy Turner sat down and had a chin-wag with Mr.
Flannigan and dropped this little gem, I am concerned. The major
concern is the disclosure of material information in advance of a
public announcement. That is just begging for trouble. If true, what
in the world was he thinking?
A lesser concern is that this sensitive information was given to
someone who wasted no time posting it to the internet. Again, very
poor judgment.
As for Mr. Flannigan's judgment, it seems a little frayed, too.
Unless Turner and Kaiser have been saying the same things to a
number of people, they probably know exactly who gave this
away. I doubt either will be too willing to slip him sensitive
information again--not that he should have been given it in the first
place, at least from Turner.
On another matter, does it strike you as odd that six days ago we
got a release that said that blasting and mucking had begun and
shipping of the bulk sample had commenced, and now we hear that
2,000 tonnes has been processed?
It's all too much for a plodder like me.
Regards.
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Reply
Author: WillP -- Date:1999-03-14 19:37:42
Subject: Welcome Back My Good Friend
Always nice sparring with you.
This time, I fear we feel exactly the same. Exactly.
"However, if Randy Turner sat down and had a
chin-wag with Mr. Flannigan and dropped this little
gem, I am concerned. The major concern is the
disclosure of material information in advance of a
public announcement"
Yes. The Antler merger, as I recall, was greeted with a trade
halt. I contacted both Winspear, and Antler...and both
declined to release anything...anything until the news release
was formally issued. No comment whatsoever. Lips got a bit
looser at Antler as Winspear delayed issuing the release until
into the evening, as I recall.
I'd chalk this up to a major faux-pas. If true.
"A lesser concern is that this sensitive information was
given to someone who wasted no time posting it to the
internet. Again, very poor judgment.
As for Mr. Flannigan's judgment, it seems a little
frayed, too..."
Umm...yep. If true.
Would Kaiser actually tell someone his recommendation in
advance of those paying sizable sums for his advice? I admit
to be struggling with that one as well.
"On another matter, does it strike you as odd that six
days ago we got a release that said that blasting and
mucking had begun and shipping of the bulk sample
had commenced, and now we hear that 2,000 tonnes
has been processed?"
Actually...I've been having a number of problems with this
and similar comments. Within 24 hours of 'blasting and
mucking has begun" we heard from a NLW that it was
complete.
Then we hear it's not.
Now we hear it is.
As for the processing rate at Lytton...If they can churn
through 2000 tonnes in a week...or two weeks...then why
the wait until June for grade values from 6000 tonnes. From
the Ides of March to then is 90 days, roughly. Hmmmm.
That's 10 days for the first third, and 90 days for the next
two thirds. This isn't computing well.
I've been doing some gentle research through all my 'stuff'.
Here's what I found: "The 15,000 tonne sample will be
processed at an average rate of 4,000 tonnes per month,
after allowing for down-time of one week in every four
as a result of crew rotations and plant maintenance." -
Feb 6 1997 Lytton News Release.
So...two weeks for 2000 tonnes...now when precisely did
the first bit of Winspear's ore arrive at Lupin? Was it 2
weeks ago? If it's indeed done...the other 4000 tonnes
should be completed by mid April or possibly sooner, it
appears.
"It's all too much for a plodder like me."
Plodder? Hardly. As I say...I'm flummoxed. :-)
Regards,
WillP
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Reply
Author: ScoobyDoo -- Date:1999-03-14 19:44:48
Subject: I'm so confused
Rumors blo big time!!! Can't believe what I'm hearing. If ANY of
SI chat is true, I'm afraid it can't be good for the market ... too
confusing. Splitting a company?!?! Now?!?! Why?!?! You'd think
WSP would be 'focussed' on this 'make or break' exploration
season. WillP/RealityCheck, I'll be contemplating this all night ... I
REALLY must be missing something here, it quite simply does not
compute. Are they trying to 'screw' shareholders somehow? Will
have my 'hair trigger' mouse on a few thousand shares sell order
tomorrow just in case. I'M NOT HAPPY.
By the way ... some weeks ago, SI Red recommended a High
Tech company named CMEC. As I recall, he believed the stock
would rocket past $1.00. It's now at < 0.50. Rather interesting. I
don't think this individual is trying to be malicious in any way ....
perhaps just a bit toooo enthusiastic. Would prefer if he was more
cautious.
Amazing how last month some were talking $50.00 share prices ...
and now?
This is driving me crazy
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Reply
Author: WillP -- Date:1999-03-14 20:08:50
Subject: Flummoxed = Confused
I hear ya Scooby.
Most SI rumours turn out to be false. I'm not sure how or
why they're created...but they are. A very few end up being
substantiated. Whether by luck or skill...I'm not sure.
Most can be debunked by a few minutes digging.
Unfortunately...this one keeps developing two new heads
each time I kill off one old one. I can't keep up. It's like an
old fairy tale.
So I don't know.
My only suggestion is trust nothing...and watch very closely.
That's what I'll be doing.
Regards,
WillP
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Reply
Author: RealityCheck -- Date:1999-03-14 19:48:20
Subject: Flannigan's Wake
WillP:
I am puzzled by the suggestion of spinning off Snap Lake, too. I am
not familiar enough with the relationship between Aber and
Winspear to know whether the scenario you advance,
speculatively, makes some sense of it. Your suggestion that the
benefit to Aber would be a realization of market value for their
portion of Snap Lake does seem reasonable. However, is there
really enough of a corresponding benefit to Winspear?
My first thought was that, if true, the spin-off might be because of a
looming takeover. If that were the case, however, why would
Kaiser pull the trigger? There are separate matters at issue here, of
course: the spin-off; and Kaiser's reaction. Moreover, we don't
know how solid either of these suggestions really is.
Regards.
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Reply
Author: WillP -- Date:1999-03-14 20:17:00
Subject: It's The Best I Can Do
Reality:
"However, is there really enough of a corresponding
benefit to Winspear?"
Yeah...I know. In fact...I think I said as much in (probably)
that post. Well...in one of 'em.
The only rationale I could come up with...is the one about
protecting Snap Lake from a takeover. It's a weak one...and
requires Aber's part or whole participation the way I put it.
(Otherwise what's the point? Oh...some other outsider could
merge in, I suppose...but that's really reaching.)
The whole thing is possible as I outlined it...but it's also
weak.
Interesting...I note Sudhir Khanna now posting frequently on
SI...with no comment on said rumour(s).
Arrggghhh....I'm now analyzing tea leaves.
How solid either suggestion is? Well...if any of them are
true...then it sounds like they must have put something in the
water at PDAC. A simultaneous mass case of the 'oopsies'.
:-)
Regards,
WillP
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