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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: donald sew who wrote (8186)	3/15/1999 10:16:00 AM
From: The Ox	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

From a statistical view, I think you are better off going with the range of high/low, or +12% to -4%. Could see 9600 or could see 11200.......

To: donald sew who wrote (8186)	3/15/1999 10:41:00 AM
From: RocketMan	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99985

Donald, these are the corrected figures: First One Crossing month Date Level later Change -------- ------ ------ ----- 11-Oct-82 1012.8 1054.7 4.14% 8-Jan-87 2002.3 2176.7 8.71% 17-Apr-91 3004.5 2886.6 -3.92% 23-Feb-95 4003.3 4087.8 2.11% 21-Nov-95 5023.6 5096.5 1.45% 14-Oct-96 6010 6313 5.04% 13-Feb-97 7022.4 6878.9 -2.04% 16-Jul-97 8038.9 7803.4 -2.93% 6-Apr-98 9033.2 9054.7 0.24% ------ ------ ----- Average 1.42% The standard deviation is 4.1%, so according to this historical data we could see, within a month, the following: Average: 10,142 One sigma limits: 9731 to 10552 Two sigma limits: 9320 to 10963 If we go by average performance, the rise would not be very large, somewhere around 10150. If we go by the extremes, we could see either a substantially higher or a substantially lower market. Also, keep in mind that this is a one-month look ahead snapshot, and the figures would be quite different if we took a different time window. But except for the 2000 level, when we zoomed almost 9% within a month, the rest of the crossings have not been monumental. P.S. Thanks, James, for showing me how to do the fixed format. Simple unless you don't know how :-)