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Strategies & Market Trends : Currencies and the Global Capital Markets -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Henry Volquardsen who wrote (1391)	3/15/1999 2:05:00 PM
From: Sam	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3536

But don't forget that they [we] won't pull it all out at once. It will go 10,000, 20,000 at a time, minimizing taxes. It will mean, though, that there will be a downward bias to the market, and quite a bit more volatility, I would guess. But people will want to keep it in the market if the economy is OK to get better returns, as we will expect to live into our 80s and 90s, and perhaps even longer if biomedical advances keep up their frightening pace (with, of course, absolutely no regard for social consequences). Unless, of course, we collectively become convinced that a multiyear/decade bear market is in the cards. If it appears so, it may become so. Thinking out loud.

To: Henry Volquardsen who wrote (1391)	3/15/1999 4:14:00 PM
From: Bill Ounce	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 3536

re: The boomers as a group have been tremendously poor savers. >>> So even their current rate of savings will not allow them >>> sufficient funds to just switch yo annuities and clip the >>> coupons. Also a decade plus bull market is making them >>> complacent about returns on equity investments. These two >>> factors could combine to keep them substanially in >>> equities longer than the typical profile as they try to >>> pad out their savings. I'd go a bit further. Their retirement will be semi-retirement. They haven't saved enough to retire and sell their stocks, let alone skim interest bearing investments. A pessimist would say that this would tend to choke off the flow of new money into stocks, which would eventually lead to a decline culminating is a crash with panic selling. An optimist would sat that these sorts of people never really did much investing in the first place, so nothing big will happen if they sell off their pittance portfolios. Reality may be somewhere in between :-)