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Strategies & Market Trends : HONG KONG -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ron Bower who wrote (2722)	3/15/1999 4:29:00 PM
From: WONG	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2951

They just need something to fill the headlines after the Lewinsky affair.....

To: Ron Bower who wrote (2722)	3/15/1999 9:28:00 PM
From: Tom	Respond to of 2951

Ron, We'll know shortly. The following is more of the background. 1) North Korea has announced plans to launch another ballistic missile of the 3-stage variety. Also, South Korean and Japanese sources are reporting the PRC aiding North Korea in the integration of satellite technology with their ballistic missile system. 2) North Korea, as well as the PRC, is now reported by U.S. intelligence sources to have the capability of successful delivery to U.S. targets of nuclear warheads called "city busters." 3) The PRC has made its intentions obvious. There are now active PLA anti-air and anti-surface weapons systems installed on several reefs in the Spratly Group. Add those to the jet-capable runway in the Paracels. 3) Intelligence-gathering equipment reportedly identified the PRC's increase in number of ballistic missile units deployed opposite Taiwan. 3) On the island, only Taipei is currently ringed w/ the '2-plus' variant of Patriot missiles. And Taiwan has precious little, if anything, in the way of an offensive missile capability. 4) The Taiwanese realize, too, the eventuality of the PRC's ability to deploy missiles in sufficient number to overwhelm any anti-ballistic missile defense. Add an outright denial of a TMD (Theatre Missile Defense) system for Taiwan, and guessing the Taiwanese have no desire to fool themselves on this matter, the "nuclear card" is that much closer to being played. Wonder whether the communists have thought of that? (I would imagine so.) 5) Both Taiwan and Japan are entirely capable of deploying deliverable nuclear warheads on relatively short order. The U.S. had Taiwan dismantle a previous nuclear weapons program, and the latest estimate I've seen is 2-3 weeks for Japan. 6) As lately as a couple of weeks ago rep's from both the U.S. and Taiwan visited the PRC, requesting they discontinue some sort of nuclear facility. Can't recall the details right-off. (That instance alarmed me.) 7) Japan has been questioning both the effectiveness and current resolve of U.S. forces in defending Japan. Their alternatives, should they lose confidence in sufficient U.S. protection, are not difficult to imagine. -----