To: GoNorth who wrote (11662 ) 3/16/1999 12:03:00 AM From: Denise D Respond to of 37507
GoNorth, Thanks for your input, though I'm not sure I agree with it. On Europe – • I don't believe BII is taking its eyes off the US market, but I think in this case they are concentrating on critical mass (I'm embarrassed by how often I use that term, but it is so darn important). • It is important to be the first. I once posted an article from the 28-Jan-1999 edition of the NP, where Mr. Seeman opined: "This effect is variously referred to as a self-reinforcing cycle, a virtuous circle, positive feedback, or my favorite: lock-in... How do you achieve lock-in? The easiest way is to be the first. Yahoo was the first. eBay was first. Amazon was first. Being first helps immensely to get that critical number of users necessary for the business to take on a life of its own: critical mass." Message 7607616 • Here's another good reference site, with links to other informative sites, for convergence in Europe: ispo.cec.be • "Personal expenditure on computer hardware and software is increasing rapidly and the rate of growth in online services and Internet access is currently very fast. Some providers are seeing a 20% monthly increase in subscribers without a significant drop in average revenues per subscriber."¹ • "Once people think of the product as mainstream, it becomes mainstream. If this perception does not develop, the product will fail. However once market confidence is established take-off into a mass market can be rapid."¹ • Regarding the US being hot, hot, hot (your words), "The rapid growth in Internet subscribers would suggest that the Internet has passed its discontinuity, but the case is not fully proven. Internet subscription is not a stand alone product since currently you need a high specification PC to access it. People with such PCs are subscribing but this does not mean it is a mass market product as penetration of such machines is still small. There is also early evidence in the US that penetration has peaked at around 25% of the installed base of high A-specification PCs."¹ On Dublin – • Obviously I am not expecting record revenues in this area, but I do think with the large number of high-tech people and companies who have relocated to Ireland; the large exports in the electronics and software area; and the significant efforts on the part of the Department of Enterprise, Trade and Employment, together with other departments, we can expect to see a large interest in e-commerce. I think Bid.Com will benefit from that. On Interactive TV – • I think if something actually materializes in 1999, the interest from the market will be enough. Just one sought-after or well-publicized item up for bid will create media attention (do I have to remind you of Mark McGuire's multi-million dollar baseball?). Maybe an autographed copy of Monica Lewinsky's book? (That's a joke.) Denise. ¹ Report for the European Commission (Part II) Public Policy Issues Arising from Telecommunications and Audiovisual Convergence , KPMG Management Consulting, September 10, 1996.