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Technology Stocks : Cymer (CYMI) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rob C. who wrote (21343)	3/16/1999 1:42:00 PM
From: Rustam Tahir	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 25960

Some details from Morgan Stanley: "ASML booked 24 new orders in 2H98, but we believe the company booked 45+ new orders in the first two months of 1H99. Furthermore, based largely on a capacity utilization surge in Taiwan, along with a general upswing in demand, we believe ASML's lead times will likely reach nine moths by May, up from five months today. If so, ASML will likely book itself full for the rest of the year and we will probably raise our numbers again on top of current estimates... We believe better-than-expected demand for ASML systems is driving a real-time improvement in demand for Cymer's excimer lasers. In fact, we believe ASML may represent over 50% of Cymer's revenues in '99, up from 37% in '98. It is apparent that ASML continues to gain market share from Nikon and Canon. However, the rate of improvement that Cymer experiences will not likely be as good as ASML, because Cymer does not have anybody to gain share from. Nonetheless, we believe we are at the beginning of a series of upside forecasting exercises for Cymer as the company grows with the market and experiences margin expansion along with healthy ASP growth. Although Nikon and Canon continue to work through excess 5000 Series laser inventory, Cymer has essentially transitioned the market to its 5010 Series that has a 25% higher ASP ($500K vs $400K). Despite the recent industry downturn, Cymer has executed its technology roadmap flawlessly, and has successfully moved the market to its leading edge solutions. Based on our forecast for ASML to rapidly transition to 0.15 micron capable PAS5500/700 systems in 2H99, we believe Cymer will again experience an uptick as it moves the market to its 6000 Series laser as '99 unfolds. The 6000 series represents a 20%+ ASP hike from the 5010 series. We now expect this transition to occur somewhat faster than we forecasted a few months ago. From a competitive perspective, Cymer continues to dominate the excimer laser market while Komatsu makes slow progress in Japan and Lambda Physik makes very slow progress. We believe Komatsu has installed about 12-15 lasers in volume production fabs in Japan and Lambda Physik should be installing its first current generation system into a fab this quarter." rustam

To: Rob C. who wrote (21343)	3/16/1999 3:25:00 PM
From: Guy Gordon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25960

RE "I didn't like the action today....sold all at $25.00" Looks to me like a fight over the options expiring Friday. The stock is up nicely on an upgrade, and then sells off all day long. Those trades a 3:30pm Monday sure look as if the MSDW upgrade leaked. But I think you made a mistake to sell. Even if the options sellers can keep the price down to 25 till Friday, (possible on such a thinly traded stock) I expect it will go up after that. I'm long the stock at 22 3/8 and the Mar 22.5 calls at 1 9/16. I expect I'll sell the calls soon rather than have them add to my stock position on expiration.