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Technology Stocks : Cymer (CYMI) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rustam Tahir who wrote (21344)	3/16/1999 2:09:00 PM
From: Robert Douglas	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25960

Rustam, Thanks. The paragraph on competition is very encouraging. -Robert

To: Rustam Tahir who wrote (21344)	3/16/1999 4:19:00 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25960

Rustam: Your post touched upon the bootstrap factor. Unit shipments are important but ASP is the bootstrap to the bottom line. It is estimated to be 40% greater at .13um when compared to .18um ($700k vs. $500k) per unit. Komatsu is a second source status supplier to Nikon. And that is the way it will be for the forseeable future. Nikon meets with Cymer every so often to pound them on pricing with a Komatsu threat. Cymer listens and then maintains or raises its prices. Nikon pays the higher prices. And the cycle repeats itself.

To: Rustam Tahir who wrote (21344)	3/16/1999 7:29:00 PM
From: Clarksterh	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25960

We believe better-than-expected demand for ASML systems is driving a real-time improvement in demand for Cymer's excimer lasers. In fact, we believe ASML may represent over 50% of Cymer's revenues in '99, up from 37% in '98. It is apparent that ASML continues to gain market share from Nikon and Canon. However, the rate of improvement that Cymer experiences will not likely be as good as ASML, because Cymer does not have anybody to gain share from. ??? The emphasized text misses two very important points: 1) The Cymer customers were working off Cymer inventory last quarter and thus orders were unnaturally low. This is the whiplash effect where the provider of the providers get hammered the worst in a downturn. (Although Cymer wasn't hammered too badly due to a corrollary of point two.) 2) Cymer lasers are being installed in a higher percentage of devices as time goes on. Perhaps last quarter only 50%(?) of ASM equipment shipped with Cymer parts, but this quarter its 70%(?). Anyone know the true numbers? Thus while it is true that Cymer can't gain any market share they may still see as big (or bigger?) spike in orders for other reasons. Clark