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To: Mark Ivan who wrote (17654)	3/16/1999 12:59:00 PM
From: Jim S	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18056

Interesting theory. One correction, however; options expiry is THIS Friday. A "Triple Witcher" at that. jim

To: Mark Ivan who wrote (17654)	3/16/1999 1:00:00 PM
From: IceShark	Respond to of 18056

Well one little fly in that theory is options expire this week. -g- But it could very well come to pass. Another factor arguing against a big drop is that European money managers are way under allocated in the US equity market (actual 30%, should be ~ 50%) because they don't believe in our goldilocks economy and market. If that ever comes rolling in ...... Regards, Ice

To: Mark Ivan who wrote (17654)	3/16/1999 7:02:00 PM
From: Monty Lenard	Respond to of 18056

Hi Mark, sounds like a very good theory to me. Just one problem. I am part of that TOO MUCH money sitting in MM's but you all aren't getting any of mine on a LITTLE dip nor above 10000. <g>

To: Mark Ivan who wrote (17654)	3/16/1999 8:46:00 PM
From: Cynic 2005	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 18056

The deal with Money Market cash: It is simply cash. A good majority of it will be there (not necessarily always in MM funds), regardless of the level of the stock market. To think that all that money will be burned to buy stocks is simply foolish, IMO. A person selling MSFT at 165 today will get the proceeds and he/she will put it somewhere. If he/she buys another stock with that proceeds that seller will statch that money somewhere. See, it is the "currency" and will keep "current."

To: Mark Ivan who wrote (17654)	3/16/1999 8:50:00 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18056

Mark, I agree with your liquidity thesis (add to that a sum of $500 billions over the next 12 months that need to find a home), yet with valuations stretched indicating weak fundamental reasons for current prices, and with technicals falling apart (as we advanced in the last few weeks, the new highs were going down and the new low up !!!, forget about the A/D line which is sitting as moribund as if we were in the middle of a bear), I think the breach of 10,000 either on a temporary basis or closing basis could very well serve as trigger for a good 15% decline (I have the range of 8250 to 8400 on the DOW as the resting place of the next through sometime before the end of June). At that time, particularly if interest rate on the long bond manage to get back under 5%, I expect the liquidity thesis to reemerge as a leading drive for a powerful rally. Long term, however, I do not think that the DOW will get much higher than few hundered point above the 10,000 level for a good five years. Zeev