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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Yougang Xiao who wrote (52680)	3/16/1999 1:33:00 PM
From: kash johal	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 1576972

Yougang, I think it was stated by some-one from AMD that several hundred K7 wafers were in process. If you assume a max of 500 wafers will have been packaged/tested by launch that is probably realistic. Assume 20 DPW and you have around 10K pcs. And yes the K7 starts at 0.22 Micron in Fab 25. It will also start at o.22 Micron in dresden in Q2/Q3. My guess is that K7's will sell for well over $500 initially. It would seem to me that as they will be supply limited they will do OK. The key will be if and when they ramp dresden and start yielding high volumes in Q3/Q4. If the infrastructure is in place for 2 way and 4 way chip sets etc then it could give Xeons a run for the money. The key to the K7 is the 0.18 micron process. I doubt if AMD can yield any reasonable volumes with the die size at 180mm2. Some 0.18 micron capacity from MOT or IBM sure would come in usefull right now. But I suspect Jerry's manhood is at stake and they will go it alone for K7 manufacturing - just like with the K-3 and K6-2's. Regards, Kash

To: Yougang Xiao who wrote (52680)	3/16/1999 2:18:00 PM
From: RDM	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1576972

The initial K7 were to be be produced at Fab 25 in .25 micron. They have said that they do not plan to do any .25 micron in Dresden(Fab 30). Once they have .18 masks they will begin trial fab in Dresden. I do not believe that the K7 will be fully committed to in .25 microns, but rather as a development step to .18 microns. They may produce only 1 million pieces totally in .25 micron which from a fab point is not very much. This could change if there are delays in getting down to .18 microns. However, recall the case of the K6 when they could not produce the .35 micron part and the fix was to ramp the .25 micron part. They would be foolish to commit all there fab capacity to an untried part such as the K7. It would economic ruin if the part was not immediately perfect in all ways. The K6-III requires significant Fab 25 capacity. The price is good so they probably will emphasis the use of production fab on this part until at least Q4. By Q4 the bugs will be worked out and a decent demand forecast may be made. To directly answer, my uninformed WAG is (IMHO and all other caveats): 1. Both 2. 25,000 pieces of 500 or 550 Mhz parts ($500 ASP) for June delivery. 2b. 50,000 pieces per month for July (100,000 in August, 250,000 in Sept.)