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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rich Young who wrote (109743)	3/16/1999 9:22:00 PM
From: Jeff Mills	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 176387

Rich-- Funny you should ask about my "30/24" DELL Theory. I had a Solly Smith Barney trader in my office last week drooling over it rambling on about how much money he could have made for his clients simply by using it as a buy/sell model. It really has been unbelievably accurate over the last 2 1/2 years. For those who are new, here was my first installment post on the Theory: Message 6172063 And here was my second installment: Message 7792816 The 9th cycle topped out on Feb 2nd '99 at $110 ($55 after split). The theory stated that if DELL did not break thru that $110 price over the next 6 sessions that it would decline ~ 24% from that high. 24% off $110 is $83.60 (or $41.80). That was probably a safe target of entry based on the model. (It was funny--the Solly trader actually told me he was going to short DELL when he was in my office based upon DELL not breaking out over $110 in 6 later sessions; DELL was near $96 at the time--I wonder if he shorted and covered near the $83 target?). Anyhow, DELL did decline 24% from the $110 ($55) high. It actually hit $38.50 on the 3rd of this month. That is a 30% retraction, but 24% was at least met. So now that the low has been set, the 2nd part of the rule says that approx. 30 sessions after the top was set a new one will be made. Today was session #30. DELL is at $44 3/8, no where near $55. The list below shows how many sessions it took to break an old high over the last 8 cycles: Cycle 1 (back in Oct 97)--27 sessions Cycle 2--33 Cycle 3--35 Cycle 4--39 Cycle 5--23 Cycle 6--19 Cycle 7--30 Cycle 8--29 I would say that if DELL does not top $55 in the next 9 (which would be 39 sessions total, much like cycle 4) sessions--either this model has become totally useless <ggg> or DELL is not the stock it once was. I'll take option A. I think that if DELL breaks out here with the market then $55 is an easy move. If DELL retests $38.50 and breaks it--well I would become concerned. Let me know what you think, Jeff