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Technology Stocks : Lucent Technologies (LU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: stewart kagel who wrote (6649)	3/16/1999 6:44:00 PM
From: Anonymous	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 21876

"Now, can someone explain why LU hasn't participated much in the general market's upward movement lately?" Well, because it did back on January 6 when it hit a high of about $120/share and closed that day at $117 3/16. Lucent was then way ahead of itself so it dropped down to where it is at the present. The P/E scares everyone (the big investors, not the ones on this thread). Once the big guys decide that it is time to buy again it will move but not right now. You should watch the volume each day...6 to 7 million per day is about average for this stock. When it goes over 10 million then something is happening. Back on Jan 20 (10,132,00 shares), Jan 21 (20,006,300 shares) and Jan 22 (10,330,500 shares) determined the drop from 115 1/2 to 102 1/16 by Monday, January 25. Before that, on January 13....22,850,100 shares traded taking the stock down to 104 1/4...then everything for the next four days was buying through Jan 20. After hours trading set the stage for the big drop the next day. Little guys don't trade this stock to make the volume jump like that on a daily basis. I sure wish I was a fly on the wall in some of these places that move the market. And all the PR that Lucent puts out daily about all the deals it is constantly making or in the process of making doesn't do diddly for this stock. McGinn does have some affect whenever he gets the bully pulpit to tell everyone what a great job he is doing. But all the press releases that are posted on this thread don't mean much. Anonymous

To: stewart kagel who wrote (6649)	3/16/1999 7:39:00 PM
From: Sueponine	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 21876

LU's nonparticipation in the recent market move up? That would have to do with that little purchase.....ASND, remember. Some say that LU paid toooooo much for it. S.

To: stewart kagel who wrote (6649)	3/17/1999 8:31:00 AM
From: Mr.Fun	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 21876

LU's 1Q revenue line spooked many large investors who have been on the sidelines waiting for more information. Furthermore, shorts have been sowing the seeds of doubt about the quality of LU earnings based on some shoddy analysis done by an outfit called the Center for Financial Research and Analysis. Some observations: the seasonality of LU's revs and earnings is changing - in 1998, sales incentives were tied to the fiscal year rather than calendar for the first time - it should have been no surprise that revenues were up big time in Sep. and light in Dec. Carrier spending is accelerating due to strong user service demand and the pressures of increasing competition. The spending is not just routers and ATM, but fiber, optical systems, communications software, and even voice. Both Qwest and Level3 bought $10s of millions in circuit switched hardware last year and will buy more this year. 82% of US telecom revenues come from voice, 90% worldwide. LU microelectronics is doing 20% growth right now in a cyclical upturn in non-PC silicon. LU optoelectronics is only slightly smaller than JDS Uniphase, and growing nearly as fast. 2Q earnings are going to be good. Alot of big investors will be surprised. This baby will take off like a rocket.