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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kailash who wrote (38556)	3/16/1999 10:49:00 PM
From: William H Huebl	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Kailash, This is my 2nd response to you... the 'puter ate the first one... < What is your take on this? > It is one of my tools... but I like to use analysis tools on it and not depend on the cumulative values alone. < What do you use to generate the current prediction of an imminent BK? > I posted a series of tools I use... LNHNL, SCY, psych indicators... my mainstay is my version of SCY. < If you prove right, you deserve more than just money > The money will do. <gggggggg> Bill

To: Kailash who wrote (38556)	3/16/1999 11:42:00 PM
From: Vitas	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 94695

Kailash, that post referred to the Nasdaq a-d line, which over time usually has a a negative bias. However, at 4 year cycle bottoms the NAZ a-d line goes up for at least the first year. See 1975, 1978,1982,1985,1990,1995. This time around, there are no signs of life whatsoever. Today it made yet another new low. This would seem to indicate that we have not yet made the true 4 year cycle bottom yet. Nasdaq daily advance decline line year end reading 1972 to present and direction for that year: 10/06/72 -259 12/29/72 -9677 12/31/73 -64151 D 12/31/74 -92735 D 12/31/75 -89623 U 12/31/76 -83472 U 12/30/77 -81455 U 12/29/78 -80506 U 12/31/79 -75921 U 12/31/80 -72111 U 12/31/81 -92762 D 12/31/82 -93248 D 12/30/83 -90620 U 12/31/84 -107872 D 12/31/85 -96073 U 12/31/86 -108999 D 12/31/87 -135516 D 12/30/88 -133605 U 12/29/89 -134515 D 12/31/90 -151347 D 12/31/91 -134083 U 12/31/92 -130837 U 12/31/93 -127758 U 12/30/94 -149044 D 12/29/95 -144509 U 12/31/96 -162111 D 12/31/97 -176611 D 12/24/98 -232798 D That is MINUS 232,798 since October 6, 1972 ------------------------------------------------------------ In the meantime, on the NYSE, after a four year cycle bottom,when the market makes a recovery high the 1% ema of a-d should cut across the zero line like a knife: decisionpoint.com This time, we stalled at zero and have rolled over: decisionpoint.com The a-d line should be headed up, instead we actually came back to the October 98 lows: decisionpoint.com decisionpoint.com The present situation looks identical to the last gasp rally in July, 1957 decisionpoint.com Notice the failure at zero, the rollover, and the final rally to new highs. It is interesting what happened after this failure. Vitas