When I talk about CSCO's INTC's MSFT's TXN's GE's G's C's and MER's and SNE's of the world this is what I mean--10,000 or 9,000 is not important, it is about pre-dominant direction and to be in stocks which are rising and out of those which are falling.
The times to treat market with a single stick is over,like yesterday anyone holding Techs would do great although market did not go anywhere. Opportunity is the name of the game and you cannot overlook it, when it is presented on a platter. Are we here to make some great trades or keep deciding for donkey number of years when to get in the stocks, is staying cash a virtue? For me it is a curse a banal reflection of love for tading money. We are in the market every day, it opens every day and we need to make something out of it every day that is my definition of a good trader. Part with money without prejudice of direction is the name of the game.
To stay cash in a market which have just touched 50 days MA and have roared back up is strange. To miss a train like that every day is something wrong, me as a host of this thread is responsible to identify the opportunity, present it, and look to cover it at a decent profit..
Fear does not come in the equation, I have no 'crystal ball' to predict big falls, this is for me wrong to say 'I feel like shorting the market'. Let the fundamnetals tell me a different story, market is not here as a result of some one's favor it is at these levels for a reason, those reasons need to change for a change in direction, I woukld therefore like to maintain a bullish bias in an uptrending market, to say market has come up quite a bit every day is strange logic and unscientefic.
I would rather define my limits and trade within my limits every day, for me market is about picking stocks identifying them and defining the trend of the market with lethal accuracy on daily basis either short or long. To ask someone to buy puts at market stays beyond me, it is unfair and if the supprt is not taken out you don't do that this is the only way to avoid whipsaw.
Mer says it all in your post...<<Tupper said firms that showed growth characteristics, quality firms that gave high return on equity and high return on assets with
a low debt level, and firms with larger market capitalization would continue to outperform. >>
Nothing better could summarize my selection of stocks. For me market is about being in the right sector and right stocks, those who look at DOW and say 'narrow rally' do they ever realize that market cap is concentrated big time in NDX and Composite the performing sectors, the laggards have been laggards.
I see this unfortunate emphasis on NHNL and ADL. I want to tell these guys please look at this market breath, this has been negative all along, may be we need new indicators to define this new buying in the market. Look at it Oracle gives bad prognosis, market takes no prisoners they take Oracle the darling and slaughter it mercilessly, what stops them today to do that for TXN's or CSCO's or SUNW's. I have identified these stocks have been hit by them but along the way seen them grow mushrooming like a 'profit cloud'. If they fail they would be on first inkling of slow down in growth remember overselling in SOX to 178 as late as Oct 98.
In the process when I started following EMC's at 6$.I was noticing and invested in View-logics and Kennetechs also, these were crucified the technologies which here are not because we have been big fools to invest in them, my stock does not perform I short it 20 times I own. If in this kind of ruthless environment market is performing it is something to think about. Market is not about 'intellectual discourses' it is about stock picking and it is about being in the right stocks. On these two counts if you are right you will do great in the market.
DOT capitalization is miniscule in comparison to the entire market cap, Yahoo and internets can loose 400 points on DOT and Market cap would still be upward of 9 trillion $, may be this escape of hype may be good but the aset bubble on proportion of JPN does not exists. If you are in the mainstream the 'cup winners cup' finale you need to perform on growth if you are in future tech like internets your hits or your membership should grow exponentially. If you are a cyclical company like BA CAT or GE or GM you need to perform at the best level of efficiency, MO and other laggards of DOW are leading example of market is not about huge inflationary asset bubble. BA came short and see where it is, DIS a world class performer failed and see where it is languishing, as if for the managers of these companies DOW does not exists. Market has been at 4000 for BA's and DIS.
They never benefited form that huge bubble. A market bubble would have taken all this much much higher or peripherals like RUT would not have stayed at lofty multiples. Take the multiple's of composite out of the market and the remaining market trades at 16 p/e.. In Nikkei this was not the case the rising tide has helped all boats whose center of gravity were suspect. Those who emphasize on these draconian indicators like market breath fail to see that the day market start rewarding the ‘cup winners cup' finalist with the same valuations as the leaders, I will be first one out. You want to own MSFT I want a top class premium, you want AOL I will not part for free, those who want AOL for 30 have to live with RUT stocks.
If this market can take the wiping out of entire Banking sector and maintain the upward thrust remember Citi fall from grace from 100 or 90 to 28$ or Mer mid 40's these very same guys were shorting where we were shouting hoarse buy, buy, buy. They called us the last living bull, DOW at 10000 is a classic example of market sensitive to earnings and performance.
This guy who have been quoted should know that market is here on fundamentals. If LTCM Russian politics, Brazil knockout, huge major disasters could not shake this market, not much short of huge political disturbances in Europe like Kosovo which may lead to Slav alignment may see DOW falling big time.
I agree that for me it is about 1252 support right now if it breaks 1278. I go short, I cover there and than 1228 and than 1192, at 1192 I will net short for a trip to 1130, if that does not hold we hit back to 990 and from where we roar back. I a not going to worry too much about these debates I am a trader. I have this distinguish approach of no-nonsense bull. I will keep my bearing right for me if my supports are held we are approaching 1470 target by the end of the year. 1330 I said I was shy by 7 points my friends in pits were in disagreement where to short, the locals got out at 1323 but I know they are itching to go long, for me any day I will look at that guy who is the best judge like I am on short direction of the market, rest everything else egg being removed on lot of faces on SI, these guys are pathetic characters they keep people out of leaders of the world and I tell them ‘ Shut up or put up with this rally.. Long live US economy the driving force behind the globe. A model we all will follow albeit reluctantly..
We may go through corrections but we came back up as valuations of these world class companies the rulers of the economic activity of the world belong to another realm. To understand all this you need visionaries and you need pickers like Jenna's Judy's OJ's of the world who put every day their money where their mouth is, it is putting your money at work is the first step a good trader takes rest he follows my levels and picks. ggg
If the indicator shorts are concentrating would be the mainstay of market, I would have made no money nor anyone else would. We all would be like European Managers who all bad-mouthed US markets. Were they not calling US a bankrupt nation with an unsustainable debt, a hockey stick rising debt that will destroy and drown the very fabric of US and Europe will be the Oasis gg, that came out to be wrong by miles.
Today, US is running a surplus, and is trying to be first OECD country to address the unfunded 'soical security'. It is looking to cut taxes further, also it is strange that US defied common logic to go below 4.8% on unemployment by raising efficiency and productivity created a economic boom still much beyond many a guru – economists. This is all beyond MER analyst or CNBC or SI self styled pundits, this is a market which needs to be caught as it goes higher and shorted as it test lows to see that integral correction.
These doomsayers and naysayers would never understand the undercurrents that have led the market here, I would say market has PEG going for it. As far as MSFT's of the world keep maintaining growth rate of 30%+ and inflation remains no threat and the global barriers to trade keep falling like nine pins nothing could impede market leaders to conquer the world. Market breath is a old currency let's define something new to discover ailments o DOW at 10,000 in five figures. Market will fall one day and if you short in your posts all the time one day you will look like a hero, but paper hero's are zero's without long puts when you need them most. |
