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Technology Stocks : Discuss Year 2000 Issues -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: flatsville who wrote (4733)	3/18/1999 5:23:00 AM
From: Ken	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 9818

flatsville: I agree with your position in your last post. First of all, in my humble opinion, Bruce thinks too linearly to arrive at the most plausible senarios. Multi-dimensional analytical skills must be applied to achieve such. I also agree with your statement as to the basis by which you would make your decisions....as a beginning point, at least. And, beyond that... In the gas/oil field, from ground ( a foreign country,in this case) to utility co/gas pumps, there are app. 10 'layers' of a linear chain. If any one of those app. 10 are sufficiently disrupted, then, e.g., we lose gas from any such country....(an offshot of the 'weakest link' theory)... And, also remember, in a disruption of any given chain, the cascading effect WORKS BACKWARD, AS WELL AS FORWARD! Most overlook the 'backward' effect....and thus, make more optomistic forecasts than are logical! Of all the sectors underpinning the maintenance of modern civilization, oil/diesel/refined oil (disregarding the entire chemical industry for illustration here), I believe is one of the most 'fragile' by far (taking into account the potential of disruption of each/all of its 10 layers), and one of the most likely to lead to a total collapse..... Awareness and work on this sector started at least 5 years too late, but even beyond that, the logicistics of the chips in some of those 10- pre-ordained potentials of major catastrophies thruout that entire chain...... Outside of ALL planes being grounded by, not ON Dec 31, I believe, from all my research, that this is the most likely sector for certain catestrophic distruptions. For this sector....it is too late.... far too late.... For all sectors relying on petrol, within 10 months, the dominoes will be falling.... Ken