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Technology Stocks : Discuss Year 2000 Issues -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ken who wrote (4756)	3/18/1999 8:10:00 AM
From: J.L. Turner	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9818

Well said Ken; "And, beyond that... In the gas/oil field, from ground ( a foreign country,in this case) to utility co/gas pumps, there are app. 10 'layers' of a linear chain. If any one of those app. 10 are sufficiently disrupted, then, e.g., we lose gas from any such country....(an offshot of the 'weakest link' theory)..." Dependency!Dependency!Dependency! Think Dependency! "And, also remember, in a disruption of any given chain, the cascading effect WORKS BACKWARD, AS WELL AS FORWARD! Most overlook the 'backward' effect....and thus, make more optomistic forecasts than are logical!" This is why we are headed towards depression rather than recession.The planners didn't plan correctly.The economic ramifications of y2k have not yet sunk into the market let alone the man in the street.The power of the dependencies is very hard to visualize. I think it was Bev Armstrong that used the cliff-walker analogy:The cliff-walkers marching along high above the precipice tied together,so that if one or a few fall they can be pulled back to safety.But at some point if too many fall then all begin too tumble over the edge each pulled down by his partners weight. It is at this point that the knife wielders become important because if you have a knife to cut the rope and are far enough away from those falling you can save yourself and those near to you by cutting the cord.We,all of us here are knife wielders.We may or may not choose to cut the cord.We must evaluate the situation,monitor decide act.Our knives are paper,dollars if you will,our cords are banks.If we take our knives and cut, the cords will fail.Governments worst scenario unfolds we call it TEOTWAWKI.I don't want to use my knife it frightens me;but I will use it.I won't wait until I feel my partners weight then its too late. J.L.T.

To: Ken who wrote (4756)	3/18/1999 10:04:00 AM
From: flatsville	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 9818

Ken-- Your wrote: >>>Of all the sectors underpinning the maintenance of modern civilization, oil/diesel/refined oil (disregarding the entire chemical industry for illustration here), I believe is one of the most 'fragile' by far (taking into account the potential of disruption of each/all of its 10 layers), and one of the most likely to lead to a total collapse.....<<< Which apparently could be measured in days post 01/01/00 (aside from U.S. strategic oil reserve) (courtesy of csy2k) -------------------------------- looks like oil is a JIT enterprise: only 7 days worth on hand ??? cnnfn.com Traders will be watching for signs of an acceleration in the draining of inventories, which are estimated at a surplus of 500 million barrels on the 75 million-barrels-a-day world market. <Picture>While the amount of oil in storage in industrialized countries has eased a little in recent months, there still are four or five more days of inventory cover than analysts estimate as an operational norm. ----------------------------------------------------

To: Ken who wrote (4756)	3/18/1999 9:45:00 PM
From: flatsville	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9818

Ken-- Yes, I agree...It will be the oil situation that takes us down if some progress isn't made and fast. Even if everything else works perfectly. <ggg> Bruce Webster is like a canary for me. I know something of his background and "thought processes." I'll be watching his press statements closely. It's one of those, "You know the jig is up when Bruce Webster says things like...(fill in the blank) type things. Perhaps I give him too much credit? No, not really. I'm looking for "signs." We've got a truly global economy now...soon we'll get to see what a truly global economic breakdown looks like. A preview of coming attractions may be seen in the foreign press on occasion. I've been reading the bbc for the stories on Asia and Latin American. I don't link the stories to the thread since they are technically off-topic. Some of those regarding the social breakdown in families, the "economic" (formerly middleclass) orphans who just get dropped-off at the orphanage by "shamed" and beaten-down parents who can no longer afford to feed them and the greased suicide bridge story are just too sad for words. Assuming no y2k problems it would be difficult to imagine that the flotsam and jetsam wouldn't wash up on U.S. shores eventually. With this disaster on the horizon, well...