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To: ~digs who wrote (16316)3/17/1999 12:00:00 PM
From: Trader X  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 17305
 
Have you heard of the 90s baby-boom?

After the baby boomers had their over-extended single adult, Peter Pan fling in the late seventies to late eighties, opting to start families later in life, they created a mini baby boom from the late 80s to the late 90s. Those kids, plus the intense ongoing migration into this country from Latin America/Mexico could be enough to forestall this mother of all depressions you read about. Books like those always tend to over simplify reality in order to get the logical result the author desires.

My personal belief is that global competition could create a depression as prices continue to spiral downward as they have the past few years. Witness the 30-year bond recently at all time low yields.

As for the return from war factor, soldiers returning from war create baby booms as they try to make up for several years without any poon tang. Thus the baby boom generation, the single greatest marketing force in US history, born 1946-1956, post WWII and Korean wars.*

*From the Trader X Digest of Modern History, Vol. 3



To: ~digs who wrote (16316)3/17/1999 8:52:00 PM
From: Artslaw  Respond to of 17305
 
BTW, anybody follow AURL?

I have been; quite closely. My average price is 0.65, but started at 1 3/8 (which goes to show averaging down CAN work--William O'Neil, eat my shorts).

There is quite a bit of complication around this stock, as the chip (Vortex 2--for 3D positional sound) is selling well, but there is a ton of outstanding convertible stock which has a conversion rate inversely related to the price of the stock. Thus, the lower the price of the stock, the more shares the convertible would be worth (and convertible holder could short the stock down for this purpose). Anyway, all the haze goes away soon as the last day to convert is in April.

There have been two 13A/D filings on Edgar in the last two days--can't quite figure out what is happening, but my guess is most of the shares are accounted for now, for better or worse. There is a huge potential for earnings dilution after the conversion. AURL even issued a proxy to vote more shares for that very reason. . .

Check out the AURL thread, which is about as thinly posted as the stock is (normally) traded. . .

Steve