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Technology Stocks : Micron Only Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: DavidG who wrote (43977)	3/18/1999 1:36:00 AM
From: Earlie	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 53903

David: I suggest you check out Samsung's and Hyundai's recent results. Also check out Samsung's reduced debt and the degree to which their earnings were based on chips. It will save some back-peddling Perhaps you might also read the company's 10-Q wherein the company discusses the need to upgrade the TXN plants. Let me quote: "The company believes that in order to transition the acquired operations......... it must continue to invest in manufacturing technology". "The company currently estimates that it will spend approximately $1.0 billion in 1999 for purchases of equipment, and construction and improvement of buildings." You assert that MU "has already completed their .18 micron upgrade on Mu fabs..." This is inaccurate, at least as far as the company's 10-Q is concerned, wherein it states "The company completed its transition from .25u to .21u at its Boise plant in Q4, 1998 and expects the transition from .21u to .18u to occur at its Boise site in Calendar 1999." That is, some time before December,...and it is an "expectation", not a fait accompli. I can find no reference in any of its published material wherein the company suggests that the TXN plants will be "completed by mid 1999". Perhaps you could point this out, as sources close to the company sure provide a different opinion as well. The availability of 64 mbit chips and the speed with which their prices declined, provided the impetus to a remarkably short-lived 16 mbit cycle, as well as the rapid acceptance of 64 mbit chips. The Asians simply kept moving ahead. MU was caught off guard and had to "scramble" to catch up as the cross-over occurred. To give the company its due, it admitted as much, and it also scrambled reasonably effectively. "Not only will all the homes without a PC now buy one, but expect to see...." OK, so help me make the leap of faith required by this statement, particularly as it appears to disregard the household penetration facts that I supplied. Now let's cut to the chase,.... MU has a $50 stock price, over a quarter billion shares outstanding, big losses, big debt, a declining major end product market, a continuing glut (as evidenced by falling prices), formidable competition, inadequate cash to support its growth requirements (as outlined by the company in its own public documents), heavy insider selling, a management that is frequently caught in its own fibs, and no ability to raise money. I'd love to see any numbers that you or anyone else might care to provide that would support this share price. It simply cannot be done. If you think I am wrong (as you did last year), then post some numbers to support your case. Best, Earlie