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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MikeM54321 who wrote (8334)	3/18/1999 7:09:00 PM
From: Ramsey Su	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9980

Mike, I think the Japanese trade figures were old news. There is substantial optimism being reported right now regarding Asia. The various "experts" who regularly appear on CNBC repeats the same thing but none go any further than headlines. All the issues which took Japan down have not been addressed. The $6B coupon got to be the most interesting window dressing strategy I have ever seen. Common sense dictates that if you give money to people who are in no mood to spend, they would simply use the coupons and save what they would otherwise be spending on essentials. Further more, the coupons are given to the needy, such as the seniors and lower income citizens. I wonder how much of this would generate the desired effect of stimulating consumption. As for the banks, yes, there were some more window dressing. Have you seen any bank closures a la RTC? How about liquidation of bad assets? Any massive layoffs and closure of unprofitable operations? How much are banks writing down? There were also a big question regarding under funded pension plans. Has that been addressed in anyway? Corporate earnings have been tumbling in Japan. Has that changed any? I hate to sound like the eternal pessimist but I just don't see this recovery that all the experts are seeing. Sure, sometimes you need to jawbone and talk some confidence into these markets. In the case of Japan, I think they need a little more action. Asia will not recover without Japan. I don't know who is playing what game but the yen, at 117 to the US$ is definitely not where it belongs. Their fiscal yr is ending in two weeks. Could someone be cooking the books over there? Naw, they like their food raw, don't they? Ramsey