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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bobby beara who wrote (8457)	3/19/1999 5:57:00 AM
From: Jack Luo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

bobby and thread: Take a look at OEX chart, we are in a similar situation as in the last summer. Before the last major market down turn, OEX stayed in a trading range (520~550) from late March to late June, broke out to a all-time high at middle July and then turned south. This time, it tried three times before breaking out of the trading range (610~640) to reach current all-time high. My sense here is that we will see the market top next week around 665 which is the upper boundary of the long term OEX price channel. In the last two years, OEX only moved out of this channel once, that was last Spet-Oct meltdown. Nasdap weekly chart tells a similar story. we had a market pullback in late Feb. 1999, just as we had a similar one last June before market reached its July peak. In one of my early posts in Feb., I mentioned that Nasdaq weekly chart has 9-month cycle, now we are getting close to the end of this 6-month bull run. Nasdaq probably will touch 2500 again and may even be up a little bit above 2500. If history repeats itself (it usually does), market should begin the downside of the cycle in the next two weeks. DJIA chart shows the same thing. So are the IXTCX (Nasdap Telecom Index) and other index charts. All of the major indictors on these charts point out a over-bought market which is ready to go south. One more bad sign is that several past market leaders like CSCO, LU, DELL, INTC are moving either sideway or down. What really can hold this market a little bit longer are the Internet stocks, that is the main difference between this cycle and last cycle. AOL, CMGI, AMZN, and other high fliers are at or near their all-time high. The real question is how high people are willing to pay for these stocks. If they start to decline, the whole market will be heading south really quick. What do you guys think? Agree or disagree? Anyway, I plan to start selling my long positions and taking profits next week, also begin looking for some short targets. Jack

To: bobby beara who wrote (8457)	3/19/1999 7:03:00 AM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99985

Bobby, Per my system, I still do not have a technical breakout. We have a price breakout which is common when it sets higher highs, but its not a technical breakout just yet. If the market was to continue up for more than 3 straight days(today thru TUE) then that would cause a technical breakout, per my system. Bobby, Im sticking to my position that the upside will be limited to a few hundred points, say 10,200-10,300, plus I will have a CLASS 1 SELL signal again for the overall market if today closes near its highs. seeya