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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Victor Lazlo who wrote (17756)3/18/1999 10:40:00 PM
From: Oeconomicus  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 18691
 
In other words, there are the same number of shares available to be bought or sold as there were 2.5 years ago.
Howver, there is lots more money chasing these same number of shares. This is simple arithametic.
[sic]

Victor, ya' know what else is simple arithmetic? In a real bear market, with share prices retreating a bit over 40% on the NYSE or only 20-25% on the Russell 2000 (to get to their respective levels of 2.5 years ago), there'd be the same amount of money chasing the same number of shares as there were 2.5 years ago. Think about it.



To: Victor Lazlo who wrote (17756)3/18/1999 11:52:00 PM
From: Roger A. Babb  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 18691
 
Victor, can you substaniate your point #2? I contend that there are now many, many more NASDAQ shares than two years ago. I believe that I can name 25 companies which now have more shares in total than all of NASDAQ 10 years back.



To: Victor Lazlo who wrote (17756)3/19/1999 9:37:00 AM
From: Alastair McIntosh  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 18691
 
Victor, you posted:

1. The market has been "overvalued" for about 16 years or more.


Actually, according to the fed funds model the S&P 500 was slightly undervalued for most of 1994, significantly undervalued for all of 1995 in to the spring of 1996 and fairly valued until 1997. The S&P 500 was as much as 15% undervalued at the end of September last year.

Al