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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cynic 2005 who wrote (23754)	3/19/1999 9:52:00 AM
From: Techplayer	Respond to of 77400

MMV, I agree that the market is overvalued, but until the economy begins to show signs of weakness (inflation, deflationary pressures), interest rates will remain static and the market will not lose 50% of its value. Bears have been preaching this gloom and doom for over 5 years due to this unprecedented run and have likely not made all of the money that has been available. Until there is even the slightest indication of weakening economic conditions, it does not make sense to be in a full cash position. Cisco is a stock to hold for the long term. Cisco will be here in ten years and will be much higher than it is today. Regards, Brian

To: Cynic 2005 who wrote (23754)	3/19/1999 12:34:00 PM
From: The Phoenix	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 77400

MMV, So, it's a "bubble".... So we contract... that's a buying opportunity, however for Cisco to lose 70-80% of it's value - that's ludicrous...you can't possibly support this assumption with facts. When the bubble bursts... how? I'll share some thoughts. Individual investors make up a significant percentage of the market either directly or through retirement accounts. They will/may sell some securities here to take advantage of the high valuations. This will cause a minor decline and kick off selling programs which will continue to fuel the decline. Once we retract ... at most to the 8000-8500 level (15-20%) the small buyers will come back into the premier stocks. This always happens.... at least for the past 10 years. This year will be a bit different because of Y2K and the sell-off might be a bit deeper...call it 7000 for arguments sake....a 30% delcine...which probably translates into a 40% shave for Cisco.... call it $70/share. Do you think we'll see buyers there? You betcha!! At $70/share we're looking at a forward PE of something like 30 (just a SWAG didn't do the actual calcs...). So, please share with us why you expect to see the DOW at 3000-4000 and Cisco at $20-$30....how do we get to those levels? BTW: Also share with my why you believe that if the bubble bursts the economy will contract? This hasn't been the case for the past 10 years. Again, people will cash in (at a profit mind you) and will re-invest again refueling the market momentum.... what will change this cycle and cause contraction? OG