Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ian@SI who wrote (7717)	3/19/1999 2:41:00 PM
From: klaus pluszynski	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

Ian, John's claim >>new BTB data shows that orders have plateaued. In fact, if you back out the 3-month averaging, it shows that orders in Feb. were about the same as in November, since the 3 month average for Feb. is the same as for Jan. << is correct from a mathematical point of view. Sure, the numbers will be revised, but those changes are typically small. SEMI bookings for Feb. are neutral at best. Earnings warning season is ahead and I think we'll be able to buy some of the SEMI stocks a bit cheaper over the next few weeks. Klaus

To: Ian@SI who wrote (7717)	3/19/1999 3:56:00 PM
From: Katherine Derbyshire	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10921

Personally, Ian, I'd be surprised if the BtB didn't plateau in the neighborhood of 1.05-1.10. 1.17 is the highest the BtB has been since Feb. 1996 (1.36, which turned out to be unsustainable, if you recall). FWIW, in 1997 the BtB peak (1.15 in March 1997) led the bookings peak (1688.1 in August 1997) and the shipments peak (1634.1 in November, 1997) by about six months. AMAT stock had a double top between August and November, at more than double its price in March. In 1996, in contrast, BtB was a trailing indicator, peaking at the same time bookings did and after AMAT had already headed down. Also FWIW, the lead time inherent in capital equipment manufacturing makes it more or less inevitable that shipments will continue to drop for a few months after orders turn up. It is also quite common for orders to plateau for a few months in the early stages of a recovery, since not everyone in the industry starts buying again at the same time. I'm somewhat confused by your decision to attack John as you did. You can find data to support either side of the argument, and his conclusions certainly don't display "lack of understanding of BtB." Katherine