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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: xstuckey who wrote (76792)	3/19/1999 4:25:00 PM
From: Jeff Fox	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

x, re:"Do you mean that every server must be replaced each year (surely not), or that the total number of servers will double each year, or ??? I am musing about rendering Pat Gelsinger's remark into hard numbers. He said it "tracks", but just what could that mean. The non thinking assumption would be that he means that server market sales will achieve a CAG equal to the internet commerce growth figure. This, however, sounds like hyperbole without data that makes the linkup. So ... In absence of data I took a swag :) As the internet expands new servers are added, but due to Moore's law each new generation can handle much more traffic per unit (given constant pricing). This "feels" to me like the icommerce growth rate and Moore's law are about the same (1st order). So this says that the same amount of unit sales will suffice in the future to handle the new business . . . BUT - Only if ALL units online are of the latest performance level. The existing equipment will not be able to handle the higher loads and will thus be required to be replaced. I guessed once a year "on average". This is reasonable in a growth space. This is reasonable as the obsolete product is not scrapped, but just pushed downhill to other less intensive applications. The new units go online. - There is a second characteristic that I did not factor. As the internet grows there is likely to be growth in host server sites. A new site requires new equipment. New sites are vastly underutilized as they must be to anticipate a reasonable lifetime in a world where growth is too rapid to accurately forecast. All in all it looks like clear sailing for Intel server business! Jeff