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Technology Stocks : IBM -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Don Hurst who wrote (4813)	3/19/1999 2:27:00 PM
From: Michael Bakunin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 8218

#reply-8414889 -- MSDW making cautionary comments

To: Don Hurst who wrote (4813)	3/19/1999 2:52:00 PM
From: Arrow Hd.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 8218

Don, it is the Morgan Stanley chatter that is having the most affect right now but I have been very concerned the past few weeks as IBM has not seemed to be receiving any of the new money flow. When it did not participate this morning it was obvious there is blatant weakness. I believe they will make their earnings number though it may be "talked down" by the street over the next few weeks. Revenue growth is problematic. It is the number one focus right now with the strategy being moving second half business into the first half due to the second half Y2K data center freeze. Though other tech executives from other companies have been declaring that no second half stall is visible there are industry surveys that prove the exact opposite so it is all the more reason the first quarter had to be the best ever and I am growing somewhat concerned whether it will. As you know, the sales force goes to sleep in the first quarter and customers have a buying pattern that is fourth quarter driven for budget and accounting reasons and they too rest in the first quarter. Though I was optimistic that a concerted effort this year could turn that ship around somewhat it is very difficult to change decades of "tradition" with regards to these buying patterns. I would expect that there will be an enormous effort to turn any weakness around in the second quarter and the third quarter will probably have a new mainframe and other server products announced and available. But it appears now that it may be tougher out there than anyone thought.