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Technology Stocks : Discuss Year 2000 Issues -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Hawkmoon who wrote (4906)	3/21/1999 11:02:00 AM
From: John Mansfield	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9818

' But in the back room the work is very intense. Corporations setting up war rooms, high level government officials meeting all day Saturdays talking about "in your face UPWARDS management". Not normal times. I was in a meeting today where a presenter said "You must do everything it takes, and what it takes is money. Your y2k budget is y2kbudget=kB squared, where B is the normal budget and only k is unknown." The Intensity of world effort is extraordinary, people from Russia a showing up on American y2k lists, leadership coming from the Philippines, Mexico.. And there is evidence that those in organizations, including corporations, are reacting with a degree of sanity and openness, humility and social concern, that we have not seen on any other issue. Princess Diana almost awoke the world from the nightmare of landmines, but the giant went back to sleep. Y2k is making it easier, in most cases, to talk meaningfully to anybody. * ... "At the gwy2k meeting last night [1 March 1999] at the Washington Post someone [Debby Sugarman] asked the Red Cross rep. [Gerry Collins] where the three day recommendation came from, how it was derived. He replied that it takes the Red Cross about 3 days to get set up on site. Hence, people need to be able to take care of themselves for three days until help arrives. This was very revealing. If help is not likely to arrive after three days, what then? Someone asked City Manager Michael Nolan this question. He replied that thinking that situation through is one of the hardest parts of his job. He gave no more specific answer. Perhaps if people knew the origin of the three day recommendation -- that it is not an estimate of the duration of disruption -- they would modify their thinking somewhat. Nevertheless, I still think that we should strive for a consensus that SOME preparation is needed. Once over that hurdle, we can modify the time period." Stuart Umpleby. .... CORRECTION (Mark): Here is Robert Bavis' correction to our piece on the last GWU/Washington Post Y2k meeting (mentioned again above) from Week 43, issue 27: Subject: Red Cross Response DateTue, 16 Mar 1999 08:30:03 -0500 From: "Bavis, Robert" <BavisB@usa.redcross.org> To"'frautsch@tmn.com'" <frautsch@tmn.com> Mark: Your comment in Issue 27 on Debby Sugarman's question to Jerry Collins has an inaccuracy in it that I hope Jerry corrected at the meeting at the Washington Post on March 1st. If not, I'd like to correct it here. As stated in our Y2K brochure, the Red Cross recommends stocking "disaster supplies to last several days to a week for yourself and those you live with. This includes having nonperishable foods, stored water, and an ample supply of prescription and nonprescription medications that you regularly use." The basis for this recommendation is that we think that will allow for any disruption. We are telling our chapters that they should not expect help from outside their area if there is an incident requiring response in the initial stages of the event. If Y2K events occur on a grand scale, then individual, community, and Red Cross chapter preparedness, as well as the will and spirit of people pulling together are what will pull all of us through. * * * ... During a conversation with Doug I began to think about experiences we might be able to compare to potential y2k scenarios. In 1991 I spent two months in The Mongolian Peoples Republic. The Soviets had just pulled out, leaving the country in a state of turmoil. Power was erratic, food and goods were scarce, money had no value and no one knew what was going on. At first People left their jobs, since the money they might make wasn't worth anything, and were often just lingering around the city of Ulan Bator getting drunk. Although I saw quite a few unpleasant bloody fights, the social fabric did not collapse. The Mongolians were quick to set up a black market economy and seek out alternative income through the new holes in the system. Those who were quick to adapt were able to achieve more under the harsh conditions then they had their whole lifetimes in the old stagnant "communism." The transition to a market economy is quite different from what we face in y2k, but external concerns, food, clothing, shelter, heat are always the same. This is a solid reminder that we don't have two options: total collapse or maintenance of the status quo. We have many more possible scenarios that we must be prepared for. ' tmn.com __________________________ Ron, that is right. Everybody has to find out for him/her-self what the most probable scenario will be. Nobody knows what will happen, including myself of course. That is why one should think and plan in terms of several probable scenarios at the same time (b.t.w. one of the reasons Shell was and still is such a great company is precisely because their long term strategic planning capability is also based on deeply-ingrained scenario planning. It better prepares the company for un-thought-off futures.... like the first oil crisis for instance. Among all oil companies, Shell was best prepared for that event. They might be best prepared among all oil companies for Y2k; for that matter). Regards, John