PC shipments in 1999 to be better than 1998 says IDC
Stonehenge: Things are looking up in the PC world,heck of lot better than last year for sure,the recovery in Asia and Japan contributing nicely to the effort.
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IDC: 1999 PC shipments to rise, prices stay low
By Marc Ferranti
InfoWorld Electric
Posted at 11:12 AM PT, Mar 19, 1999
Consumers in the United States, western Europe, and Asia will help drive the global PC market to new heights in 1999, and the good news for buyers is that for most models, prices will either remain where they are or fall, according to market research company International Data Corp. (IDC).
Worldwide, the number of PCs shipped this year will increase by 14.3 percent over 1998, hitting 103.2 million units, according to a recently released IDC global forecast. The expected growth -- helped partly by a recovery in the Asian PC market and continued strength in the United States -- is better than last year's 12.3 percent increase from 1997 shipments, according to IDC.
The value of the PC shipments will increase 4.8 percent to $178.4 billion, according to IDC. That is more of an increase than last year, when price hikes only averaged about 2 percent, according to the IDC report. But since the number of units shipped will outpace, in percentage terms, the dollar increase, that means the median price of all PCs will continue to decline.
Lower prices will be seen in consumer and commercial desktop PCs as well as portable units, according to Bruce Stephen, IDC group vice president of worldwide PC research.
"An increasing percentage of models in the consumer area is under the $1,500 mark, and you'll see some major players move into the under-$500 space ... it won't be just eMachines selling PCs for $399 any more," Stephen said.
Vendors positioned to gain the most this year will be those that have strong, competitively priced models for consumers -- especially in the hot United States market -- as well as strong sales and marketing programs for consumers, such as Gateway in the United States, according to Roger Kay, a PC market analyst at IDC.
In the first quarter of 1999, IDC expects the United States to have the strongest year-over-year increase of any region, with unit shipments rising by 19.3 percent. Western Europe, boosted by a strong German economy, will follow with a 15.1 percent increase in unit shipments for the quarter.
Meanwhile China, India, and Australia are getting off to good start, boosting shipments in the Asian region to 14 percent growth over last year's first quarter. Japan is experiencing a "soft" recovery, limited mainly to the consumer market, and shipments in the country are expected to rise only 6 percent over last year's first quarter. Nevertheless, things should be a lot better for the Asian region as a whole, where the number of units shipped last year actually declined by about 50,000 from 1997, Stephen said.
IDC meanwhile has revised its fourth quarter 1998 preliminary figures for unit shipments broken down by top five vendors, for the United States and the world. The final figures still show Compaq maintaining a strong hold on its first place ranking in the United States and the world. The final figures, like the preliminary estimates, show that Gateway has moved into the number three spot in the United States, knocking IBM down to number four. Meanwhile IBM held on to its number two ranking for worldwide PC shipments.
International Data Corp., in Framingham, Mass., can be reached at www.idcresearch.com.
Marc Ferranti is news editor for the IDG News Service, an InfoWorld affiliate.
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