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Biotech / Medical : Chromatics Color Sciences International. Inc; CCSI -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Marconi who wrote (4975)	3/22/1999 8:06:00 AM
From: JanyBlueEyes	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 5736

Marconi, The size of market argument is an old "short story", take a look back on this board at posts starting at #600. We are WAY WAY past this imo. Numbers will be released soon from the company regarding the true potential of the device and I'm afraid you will be left holding the bag. Anyone short at this point in time is nuts imo. Fyi, shown below is how the company explains how they obtained the number for spending on bilirubin in the US. Hint: For your own sake, you (personally) should take a hard look at this company and understand it....listening to "others" could affect your financial standing negatively. ----- The World Health Organization has published the current annual birthrate of approximately 4,000,000 births in the United States, with approximately 10% of these births being premature infants. Using numbers of individual bilirubin tests on newborn infants (heelsticks), which are not part of a general panel blood test, the Company estimates there are approximately 15,000,000 bilirubin blood tests currently performed annually, in monitoring Bilirubin infant jaundice in the United States. In making this conservative estimate, the Company assumed averages of one test (not part of a panel test) for full term infants in hospitals before discharge and one test at or after discharge, and an average of 1-2 (or 1.5) tests (not part of a panel test) for premature infants in hospitals during an average length of hospital stay of 11 days, with the remaining tests representing infants treated after discharge. These assumptions were based on publications by the World Health Organization, the American Academy of Pediatrics, independent market studies commissioned by the Company and business proposals from potential marketing partners. The Company believes that published amounts for the current reimbursement by third party carriers for heelstick bilirubin tests, not part of a general panel, range between $22-$34 per test in the United States. Assuming a $22 fee, the Company estimates a current annual amount spent on monitoring bilirubin jaundice in the U.S. of $330,000,000. -----

To: Marconi who wrote (4975)	3/24/1999 2:12:00 PM
From: Cacaito	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 5736

Size of market: Message 5023545 Still no marketing partner and competition out there, my initial 66% estimates for profit royalties should be much less. I think CCSI will get 20% royalties at best, one cold make the case for single digit royalties. Of course with no partner income is gross 100%, net who knows. The first quarter report of sales will give you the story. Stock is fully price at these levels (counting one year ahead), for next two to three years if plans go well one could make the case for a $16 stock. Including the world market up to $32. Fair entry price: $3. I will not like to hold this one when first sales are announced. Check today's news on Pathogenesis and one could see the market response to a lackluster sales (and Pathogenesis income is already several millions per quarter). What will happen when CCSI reports couple of thousands $ in sales? Expect the price back to $1.