Interesting pt of vw...
I have heard about enough talk on how ATHM will put the hurt on AOL. Well, opinions will vary until facts do happen. Below is my opinion.
1. Broadband: AOL is not sitting still on this issue, and what they have done so far (signing with the baby bells for DSL) is just the start. They have an excellent management team that has a knack for locating future trends, and their history proves it. I am not very familiar with, nor do i have the know how on the issue of internet transmission through satellite . If that however becomes viable, AOL could buy itself DirectTV. AOL is also working out deals with other cable companies.
2. Cable: Not everyone in the states has or would like to have cable. I switched over from TCI digital to DirectTV, and i have to admit that i am very happy with
the better picture quality, the better selection, and prices. In some cases, people don't even care for cable or sattelite service, they have enough with the web.
3. Masses: The masses that will use the internet are not techies, techies are the minority by far. Regular people from every walk of life are getting online. They
mostly do their thing in chatting, email, shopping, and fun. The 56K seems to be doing a wonderful job for their purposes online. Then they could always upgrade
to xDSL, or ADSL someday if they so wish.
4. Addiction: Will ATHM's speed be able to get AOL addicts away from AOL. Fat chance. Your little friend has his/her buddy list, his/her email address, his/her
little way of doing things, his/her little online world, and it takes a lot to change the masses habits and what they already are used to and know. ATHM will not find it easy to get the masses or any part of it away from AOL, and this assuming that AOL has no high speed access what so ever.
5. Content: I have never used ATHM so i would not be able to judge ATHM properly on this issue. However from my readings i can deduce that no other online company has the content that AOL has. ATHM will not only have to catch up, but have to do it in an appealing manner to the masses. You can have content but if the content is not appealing..well you know like the couple who
opened their trendy restaurant boxed between a gas station and mechanic's shop on a not so friendly avenue.
6. Name: AOL is a house hold name. It's catchy, and has a sex appeal. ATHM's name sounds boring. What's in a name, maybe more then we think or maybe not.
7. Open Cable: AOL and other ISP's are lobbying in many places to have open internet on the cable. They have won in Portland, OR..and they seem to have an
edge in LA, Seattle, and other cities. The cable for all is not a closed issue yet. Having names like Collin Powell, and Alexander Hieg on your management team
helps when it comes to situations as this.
8. Owning the wires: You can claim that ATHM owns the wires. Fine, so what guarantees that the masses will prefer those wires over xDSL, ADSL, and maybe wireless someday soon. Wires are wires, people's choices are what will count in the future.
9. International: ATHM is in Canada, how about Japan, UK, Germany, France, Hong Kong, China, South America soon..and more on the way. "America" Online is a very catchy name overseas, people love American stuff and they think of it as hip..and the name does wonders again.
10. International Cable: What would give ATHM advantage over AOL when overseas markets go cable, or wireless. AOL would have the advantage now. If
i was a foreign cable company i would choose AOL for proven brand name, customer loyalty, and content.
11. Puppets: ATHM will be a puppet for AT&T. Personally i don't like puppets. I tend to believe that the management of a puppet company would not be able
achieve, execute, and manage as effectively. The Rule Breaker picking methodology should include a rule for no puppets...and am waiting to be proved wrong.
12. Reach: Now forget ISP's. Let's talk about reach. Who has the first mover advantage: AOL. Who has the better reach from work (Netscape) and "at" home (AOL.com):AOL. Who has a very popular worldwide chat and messaging service(ICQ): AOL. Guess who will add more reach in the future?? exponentially speaking.
13. Monopolies: People tend to not like monopolistic companies. I for one always wished that i had a choice of which cable company i get to choose. If TCI does not have the channels i like nor care to add them in the future then i would like to show my disdain by switching..and i did, however to DirecTV.
14. Price: The masses (mostly middle class) might not go for expensive ISP's if the others are doing the job and are fun. Their needs could be satisfied with a
56K...chatting, email, shopping, fun...not much downloading of Gbytes software, no commercial web page design, etc. The masses are not techies, and they love
the friendly AOL.
regards to all, nofunds |
